Modelling human and structural impact and subsequent casualty rescue, transport and treatment for an eruption of La Soufrière, Guadeloupe (Technical report for ANR project CASAVA, contract number ANR-09-RISK-002)

This report details the modelling methodology and approach taken to estimate the potential consequences of Ash Fall (AF) and Pyroclastic Density Current (PDC) on buildings and humans for an eruption from La Soufrière, Guadeloupe. In addition, this report details the modelling methodology and approach taken to estimate the impact of an eruption on the emergency services and on resulting casualty numbers with time following an eruption of La Soufrière, Guadeloupe. The speed of medical treatment has a major impact upon casualty survival rates, with occlusion of the upper airways from thermal inflammation within approximately 20 minutes. Casualties of the 2010 eruption of Merapi volcano in Indonesia suffered severe burns and required intensive and continued treatment and care; however, most hospitals have a very limited capacity to treat burns victims. Management of the casualties can therefore have a large impact upon their survivability and mitigation plans need to be put in place to enable swift access to vital medical equipment such as ventilators.