Modelling residential mobility: factors associated with the movement of children in Greater Johannesburg, South Africa

Conceptualisation of child residential mobility has been influenced by developed country contexts; however, trends and models for movement are likely to differ in transitional societies. This paper uses event-history analysis to model the residential movements of South African urban children in the Birth to Twenty cohort over their first 14 years of life. Associations with mobility of children are tested over a set of domains relating to the child, the child's primary caregiver, and the child's household. A methodological approach is proposed for analysing repeated moves using multi-level models, which are adapted to maximise information from children who dropped out of the study or who had long gaps in their residential histories. The results indicate mobility is associated with economic disadvantage with children whose primary caregivers had no formal education and who lived in households with fewer assets and less access to services being more likely to change residence. The study suggests potential risks for mobile children in urban environments who may be more likely to be exposed to disruption or compromised living conditions