Modelling the decadal to centennial impact of climate change on the global distribution of coral reef ecosystems

E Couce, AJ Ridgwell, E.J. Hendy

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

Abstract

Recent advances in Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques provide a new approach for exploring potential shifts in the distribution of shallow water coral reef ecosystems with future climate change. Here we present the results from two different SDM techniques, Maximum Entrophy Modelling (a presence-only method) and Boosted Regression Trees (presence/absence). The relative contribution of environmental factors determining present-day coral reef distribution are calculated on a global 1°x1° grid using reef location data from Reefbase. The two SDM models are projected to output from a fully-coupled General Circulation Model from the Hadley Centre, HadGEM, to give decadal predictions of future coral reef habitat to 2100 under IPCC AR5 future climate scenarios. These results represent a first-order estimation of the impacts of climate change on coral reef ecosystems.
Translated title of the contributionModelling the decadal to centennial impact of climate change on the global distribution of coral reef ecosystems
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationLimnology and Oceanography in a Changing World, ASLO Aquatnic Sciences Meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2011

Bibliographical note

Conference Organiser: ASLO

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