Recent advances in Species Distribution Modelling (SDM) techniques provide a new approach for exploring potential shifts in the distribution of shallow water coral reef ecosystems with future climate change. Here we present the results from two different SDM techniques, Maximum Entrophy Modelling (a presence-only method) and Boosted Regression Trees (presence/absence). The relative contribution of environmental factors determining present-day coral reef distribution are calculated on a global 1°x1° grid using reef location data from Reefbase. The two SDM models are projected to output from a fully-coupled General Circulation Model from the Hadley Centre, HadGEM, to give decadal predictions of future coral reef habitat to 2100 under IPCC AR5 future climate scenarios. These results represent a first-order estimation of the impacts of climate change on coral reef ecosystems.
|Translated title of the contribution||Modelling the decadal to centennial impact of climate change on the global distribution of coral reef ecosystems|
|Title of host publication||Limnology and Oceanography in a Changing World, ASLO Aquatnic Sciences Meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico|
|Publication status||Published - Feb 2011|