Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China

Ross Booton*, Jason Ong, Amy Lee, Aifeng Liu, Wenting Huang, Chongyi Wei, Weiming Tang, Wei Ji Ma, Peter T Vickerman, Joseph D Tucker, Kate M Mitchell

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

1 Citation (Scopus)
6 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Objectives: An intervention developed through participatory crowdsourcing methods increased HIV self-testing among MSM (relative risk (RR)=1.89). We estimated the long-term impact of this intervention on HIV transmission among MSM in four cities (Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Jinan and Qingdao). Methods: A mathematical model of HIV transmission, testing and treatment among MSM in China was parameterised using city-level demographic and sexual behaviour data, and calibrated to HIV prevalence, diagnosis and ART coverage data. The model was used to project the HIV infections averted over 20 years (2016–2036) from the intervention to increase self-testing, compared to current testing rates. Results: Running the intervention once would avert <2.2% infections over 20 years. Repeating the intervention (RR=1.89) annually would avert 6.4-10.7% of new infections, while further increases in the self-testing rate (hypothetical RR=3) would avert 11.7-20.7% of new infections. Conclusions: Repeated annual interventions would give a three- to seven-fold increase in long-term impact compared to a one-off intervention. Other interventions will be needed to more effectively reduce the HIV burden in this population.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)467-477
Number of pages11
JournalHIV Medicine
Volume22
Issue number6
Early online date28 Jan 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank Fan Yang and Haochu Li for providing helpful feedback on the manuscript. We also thank Haochu Li for their help in the early phases of this project. Conflict of interest: KMM has received an honorarium from Gilead for speaking outside of the submitted work. All other authors have no competing interests. Financial disclosure: This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFE0103800) and the NIH (NIAID 1R01AI114310). RDB and KMM also acknowledge the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MR/R015600/1). JJO was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1104781). PV also acknowledges the UK National Institute of Health Research-funded Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol.

Funding Information:
This work was funded by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2017YFE0103800) and the NIH (NIAID 1R01AI114310). RDB and KMM also acknowledge the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, which is jointly funded by the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and the UK Department for International Development (DFID) under the MRC/DFID Concordat agreement and is also part of the EDCTP2 programme supported by the European Union (MR/R015600/1). JJO was funded by the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council (APP1104781). PV also acknowledges the UK National Institute of Health Research‐funded Health Protection Research Unit in Evaluation of Interventions at the University of Bristol. Financial disclosure:

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021 The Authors. HIV Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British HIV Association

Keywords

  • crowdsourcing
  • HIV
  • MSM
  • self-testing intervention

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