TY - JOUR
T1 - Modelling the implications of reducing smoking prevalence
T2 - The public health and economic benefits of achieving a 'tobacco-free' UK
AU - Hunt, Daniel
AU - Knuchel-Takano, André
AU - Jaccard, Abbygail
AU - Bhimjiyani, Arti
AU - Retat, Lise
AU - Selvarajah, Chit
AU - Brown, Katrina
AU - Webber, Laura L.
AU - Brown, Martin
PY - 2018/3/1
Y1 - 2018/3/1
N2 - Introduction Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups. Methods A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue. Results If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035 - well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone. Conclusion These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco 'endgame'. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking.
AB - Introduction Smoking is still the most preventable cause of cancer, and a leading cause of premature mortality and health inequalities in the UK. This study modelled the health and economic impacts of achieving a 'tobacco-free' ambition (TFA) where, by 2035, less than 5% of the population smoke tobacco across all socioeconomic groups. Methods A non-linear multivariate regression model was fitted to cross-sectional smoking data to create projections to 2035. These projections were used to predict the future incidence and costs of 17 smoking-related diseases using a microsimulation approach. The health and economic impacts of achieving a TFA were evaluated against a predicted baseline scenario, where current smoking trends continue. Results If trends continue, the prevalence of smoking in the UK was projected to be 10% by 2035 - well above a TFA. If this ambition were achieved by 2035, it could mean 97 300 +/- 5 300 new cases of smoking-related diseases are avoided by 2035 (tobacco-related cancers: 35 900+/- 4 100; chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: 29 000 +/- 2 700; stroke: 24 900 +/- 2 700; coronary heart disease: 7600 +/- 2 700), including around 12 350 diseases avoided in 2035 alone. The consequence of this health improvement is predicted to avoid £67 +/- 8 million in direct National Health Service and social care costs, and £548 million in non-health costs, in 2035 alone. Conclusion These findings strengthen the case to set bold targets on long-term declines in smoking prevalence to achieve a tobacco 'endgame'. Results demonstrate the health and economic benefits that meeting a TFA can achieve over just 20 years. Effective ambitions and policy interventions are needed to reduce the disease and economic burden of smoking.
KW - disease burden
KW - economic burden
KW - End game
KW - tobacco microsimulation
KW - tobacco-free
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85042869823&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053507
DO - 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2016-053507
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
C2 - 28495977
VL - 27
SP - 129
EP - 135
JO - Tobacco Control
JF - Tobacco Control
SN - 0964-4563
IS - 2
ER -