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Models to predict relapse in psychosis: A systematic review

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Article numbere0183998
Number of pages12
JournalPLoS ONE
Issue number9
DateAccepted/In press - 17 Aug 2017
DatePublished (current) - 21 Sep 2017


There is little evidence on the accuracy of psychosis relapse prediction models.

To conduct a systematic review of psychosis relapse prediction models
We conducted a literature search including studies that developed and/or validated psychosis relapse prediction models. Study quality was assessed and narrative synthesis was used to combine studies.

There were two eligible studies. One developed a model using prodromal symptoms and illness-related variables, which explained 14% of relapse variance but was at high risk of bias. The second developed a model using administrative data which was moderately discriminative (C=0.631) and associated with relapse (OR 1.11 95% CI 1.10, 1.12) and achieved moderately discriminative capacity when validated (C=0.630). The risk of bias was low.

It is unclear whether prodromal symptoms are useful for predicting relapse. The use of routine data to develop prediction models may be a more promising approach.

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