Near-fault ground motions and regional shaking damage assessment of the 2024 Noto Peninsula Earthquake in Japan

This study presents ground motion analyses and regional shaking risk assessments for the January 1st, 2024, Noto Peninsula earthquake in Japan. The ground motion analyses are carried out to identify a suitable prediction model of spatially correlated ground motion fields and to study the directivity and velocity pulses of near-fault ground motions. Moreover, a probabilistic regional shaking risk model for residential buildings on the Noto Peninsula is developed by integrating the ground motion data and models, building exposure data with regional characteristics (structural type and construction year), and seismic fragility functions for residential buildings in Japan. Results from the regional shaking risk assessment are obtained as cumulative probability distributions of the number of majorly damaged buildings at prefectural and municipality levels and are compared with the observed building damage statistics for the 2024 earthquake. Sensitivity analyses of the regional shaking risk assessment highlight the importance of incorporating local observations and relevant data.