On a Theory for Potential Capacity Gains due to Connected and Autonomous Trains

This paper continues the work carried out in “Fundamental diagrams and emergent dynamics of mainline rail operations” (Morey et al., 2021) and explores modelling capacity improvements that could be available from the digitalisation of rail operations by increasing levels of the European Train Control System (ETCS) (Stanley et al., 2011). Technological advances in communication and receiving data (e.g., via 5G radio-based systems) may enable real-time monitoring and analysis (Theeg & Vlasenko, 2020), which could help increase operational capacity, via use of moving-block signalling. In particular, trains might share position and speed directly with their immediate neighbours, which might achieve better throughput by implementing what we call train-following models (TFMs) —– analogous to the car-following models (CFMs) that are used to describe highway traffic.