Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

Y. T. Eunice Lo; Daniel M. Mitchell; Jonathan R Buzan; Jakob Zscheischler; Rochelle Schneider; Malcolm N. Mistry; Jan Kyselý; Éric Lavigne; Susana Pereira da Silva; Dominic Royé; Aleš Urban; Ben Armstrong; Antonio Gasparrini; Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

doi:10.1002/joc.8160

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

Y. T. Eunice Lo^*, Daniel M. Mitchell, Jonathan R Buzan, Jakob Zscheischler, Rochelle Schneider, Malcolm N. Mistry, Jan Kyselý, Éric Lavigne, Susana Pereira da Silva, Dominic Royé, Aleš Urban, Ben Armstrong, Antonio Gasparrini, Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

12 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	5553-5568
Number of pages	16
Journal	International Journal of Climatology
Volume	43
Issue number	12
Early online date	12 Jul 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8160
Publication status	Published - 1 Oct 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
Y. T. Eunice Lo was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NERC) project, HAPPI Health (Grant ID: NE/R009554/1). Dann M. Mitchell was supported by the NERC Independent Research Fellowship (Grant ID: NE/N014057/1). Malcolm N. Mistry was supported by the European Commission (H2020‐MSCA‐IF‐2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. Jan Kyselý and Aleš Urban are supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: GA22‐24920S). Antonio Gasparrini is supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), NERC (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655) and European Union's Joint Research Center (Grant ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.

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10.1002/joc.8160Licence: CC BY

https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8160Licence: CC BY

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ArctiCONNECT Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather
Mitchell, D. M. (Principal Investigator)
2/11/20 → 1/11/23
Project: Research

HPC (High Performance Computing) and HTC (High Throughput Computing) Facilities
Alam, S. R. (Manager), Eccleston, P. E. (Other), Williams, D. A. G. (Manager) & Atack, S. H. (Other)
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Cite this

Lo, Y. T. E., Mitchell, D. M., Buzan, J. R., Zscheischler, J., Schneider, R., Mistry, M. N., Kyselý, J., Lavigne, É., Silva, S. P. D., Royé, D., Urban, A., Armstrong, B., Gasparrini, A., & Vicedo-Cabrera, A. M. (2023). Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country. International Journal of Climatology, 43(12), 5553-5568. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8160

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title = "Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country",

abstract = "Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.",

author = "Lo, {Y. T. Eunice} and Mitchell, {Daniel M.} and Buzan, {Jonathan R} and Jakob Zscheischler and Rochelle Schneider and Mistry, {Malcolm N.} and Jan Kysel{\'y} and {\'E}ric Lavigne and Silva, {Susana Pereira da} and Dominic Roy{\'e} and Ale{\v s} Urban and Ben Armstrong and Antonio Gasparrini and Vicedo-Cabrera, {Ana M.}",

note = "Funding Information: Y. T. Eunice Lo was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NERC) project, HAPPI Health (Grant ID: NE/R009554/1). Dann M. Mitchell was supported by the NERC Independent Research Fellowship (Grant ID: NE/N014057/1). Malcolm N. Mistry was supported by the European Commission (H2020‐MSCA‐IF‐2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. Jan Kysel{\'y} and Ale{\v s} Urban are supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: GA22‐24920S). Antonio Gasparrini is supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), NERC (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655) and European Union's Joint Research Center (Grant ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.",

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Lo, YTE , Mitchell, DM, Buzan, JR, Zscheischler, J, Schneider, R, Mistry, MN, Kyselý, J, Lavigne, É, Silva, SPD, Royé, D, Urban, A, Armstrong, B, Gasparrini, A & Vicedo-Cabrera, AM 2023, 'Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country', International Journal of Climatology, vol. 43, no. 12, pp. 5553-5568. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.8160

TY - JOUR

T1 - Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

AU - Lo, Y. T. Eunice

AU - Mitchell, Daniel M.

AU - Buzan, Jonathan R

AU - Zscheischler, Jakob

AU - Schneider, Rochelle

AU - Mistry, Malcolm N.

AU - Kyselý, Jan

AU - Lavigne, Éric

AU - Silva, Susana Pereira da

AU - Royé, Dominic

AU - Urban, Aleš

AU - Armstrong, Ben

AU - Gasparrini, Antonio

AU - Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M.

N1 - Funding Information: Y. T. Eunice Lo was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council UK (NERC) project, HAPPI Health (Grant ID: NE/R009554/1). Dann M. Mitchell was supported by the NERC Independent Research Fellowship (Grant ID: NE/N014057/1). Malcolm N. Mistry was supported by the European Commission (H2020‐MSCA‐IF‐2020) under REA grant agreement no. 101022870. Jan Kyselý and Aleš Urban are supported by the Czech Science Foundation (Grant ID: GA22‐24920S). Antonio Gasparrini is supported by Medical Research Council UK (Grant IDs: MR/V034162/1 and MR/R013349/1), NERC (Grant ID: NE/R009384/1), European Union's Horizon 2020 Project Exhaustion (Grant ID: 820655) and European Union's Joint Research Center (Grant ID: JRC/SVQ/2020/MVP/1654). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. International Journal of Climatology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal Meteorological Society.

PY - 2023/10/1

Y1 - 2023/10/1

N2 - Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

AB - Combined heat and humidity is frequently described as the main driver of human heat-related mortality, more so than dry-bulb temperature alone. While based on physiological thinking, this assumption has not been robustly supported by epidemiological evidence. By performing the first systematic comparison of eight heat stress metrics (i.e., temperature combined with humidity and other climate variables) with warm-season mortality, in 604 locations over 39 countries, we find that the optimal metric for modelling mortality varies from country to country. Temperature metrics with no or little humidity modification associates best with mortality in ~40% of the studied countries. Apparent temperature (combined temperature, humidity and wind speed) dominates in another 40% of countries. There is no obvious climate grouping in these results. We recommend, where possible, that researchers use the optimal metric for each country. However, dry-bulb temperature performs similarly to humidity-based heat stress metrics in estimating heat-related mortality in present-day climate.

U2 - 10.1002/joc.8160

DO - 10.1002/joc.8160

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 37874919

SN - 0899-8418

VL - 43

SP - 5553

EP - 5568

JO - International Journal of Climatology

JF - International Journal of Climatology

IS - 12

ER -

Optimal heat stress metric for modelling heat‐related mortality varies from country to country

Abstract

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ArctiCONNECT Consequences of Arctic Warming for European Climate and Extreme Weather

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