Optimal Operation of the Multireservoir System in the Seine River Basin Using Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts

A Ficchi, Luciano Raso, D Dorchies, Francesca Pianosi, P-O Malaterre, P-J van Overloop, M Jay-Allemand

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)
374 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

This article investigates the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change. In this work, a centralized real-time control system is developed to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available. The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, model predictive control (MPC), and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the no-forecasts strategy based on rule-curves. Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the no-forecasts management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecast uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecast inaccuracy.
Original languageEnglish
Article number05015005
Number of pages12
JournalJournal of Water Resources Planning and Management
Volume142
Issue number1
Early online date15 Jul 2015
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jan 2016

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