Overlapping key populations and HIV transmission in Tijuana, Mexico: a modelling analysis of epidemic drivers

Hannah Fraser*, Annick B Borquez, Jack Stone, Daniela Abramovitz, David Goodman-Meza, Matt Hickman, Thomas L. Patterson, Jay Silverman, Laramie Smith, Steffanie Strathdee, Natasha Martin, Peter T Vickerman

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)
45 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

Tijuana, Mexico, has a concentrated HIV epidemic among overlapping key populations (KPs) including people who inject drugs (PWID), female sex workers (FSW), their male clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM). We developed a dynamic HIV transmission model among these KPs to determine the extent to which their unmet prevention and treatment needs is driving HIV transmission. Over 2020–2029 we estimated the proportion of new infections acquired in each KP, and the proportion due to their unprotected risk behaviours. We estimate that 43.7% and 55.3% of new infections are among MSM and PWID, respectively, with FSW and their clients making-up <10% of new infections. Projections suggest 93.8% of new infections over 2020-2029 will be due to unprotected sex between MSM or unsafe injecting drug use. Prioritizing interventions addressing sexual and injecting risks among MSM and PWID are critical to controlling HIV in Tijuana.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)3814–3827
Number of pages14
JournalAIDS and Behavior
Volume25
Issue number11
Early online date3 Jul 2021
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2021

Keywords

  • Mathematical modelling
  • people who inject drugs
  • female sex workers
  • men who have sex with men
  • Mexico

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