Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century

Lander Van Tricht; Harry Zekollari; Matthias Huss; David R. Rounce; Lilian Schuster; Rodrigo Aguayo; Patrick Schmitt; Fabien Maussion; Brandon Tober; Daniel Farinotti

doi:10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9

Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century

Lander Van Tricht^*, Harry Zekollari, Matthias Huss, David R. Rounce, Lilian Schuster, Rodrigo Aguayo, Patrick Schmitt, Fabien Maussion, Brandon Tober, Daniel Farinotti

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

Abstract

Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	143-147
Number of pages	5
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	16
Issue number	2
Early online date	15 Dec 2025
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
Publication status	Published - 1 Feb 2026

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025.

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Research Groups and Themes

Bristol Glaciology Centre

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Cite this

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AU - Van Tricht, Lander

AU - Zekollari, Harry

AU - Huss, Matthias

AU - Rounce, David R.

AU - Schuster, Lilian

AU - Aguayo, Rodrigo

AU - Schmitt, Patrick

AU - Maussion, Fabien

AU - Tober, Brandon

AU - Farinotti, Daniel

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N2 - Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.

AB - Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.

U2 - 10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9

DO - 10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

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JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

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