Perceptual models of uncertainty for socio-hydrological systems: a flood risk change example

Ida K. Westerberg, Giuliano Di Baldassarre*, Keith J. Beven, Gemma Coxon, Tobias Krueger

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

39 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Characterizing, understanding and better estimating uncertainties are key concerns for drawing robust conclusions when analyzing changing socio-hydrological systems. Here we suggest developing a perceptual model of uncertainty that is complementary to the perceptual model of the socio-hydrological system and we provide an example application to flood risk change analysis. Such a perceptual model aims to make all relevant uncertainty sources–and different perceptions thereof–explicit in a structured way. It is a first step to assessing uncertainty in system outcomes that can help to prioritize research efforts and to structure dialogue and communication about uncertainty in interdisciplinary work.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1705-1713
Number of pages9
JournalHydrological Sciences Journal
Volume62
Issue number11
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 18 Aug 2017

Structured keywords

  • Water and Environmental Engineering

Keywords

  • change analysis
  • flood risk
  • perceptual model
  • socio-hydrology
  • Uncertainty

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