Phenological variation in biotic interactions shapes population dynamics and distribution in a range-shifting insect herbivore

Phenological responses to climate change vary across trophic levels. However, how trophic phenological synchrony determines species’ distributions through its effects on population dynamics has rarely been addressed. Here, we show that phenological variation underlies population and geographical range dynamics in a range-shifting herbivore, and demonstrate its interplay with changing trophic interactions. Using a novel modelling approach, we identify drivers of variation in phenology and population growth (productivity) for populations of the brown argus butterfly (Aricia agestis) feeding on ancestral and novel host plants in the UK. We demonstrate host plant-specific links between phenology and productivity, highlighting their role in the consumer’s range expansion. Critically, later butterfly phenology is associated with higher productivity in the annual second brood, especially on novel annual hosts where later activity improves synchrony with germinating plants. In turn, later phenology and higher second brood productivity are associated with more rapid range expansion, particularly in regions where only the novel hosts occur. Therefore, phenological asynchrony imposes limits on local population growth, influencing consumer resource selection, evolutionary responses and emergent range dynamics. How existing and future trophic phenological synchrony determine population dynamics will be critical for the ecological and evolutionary outcomes of climate change.