Plant loading uncertainties and their incorporation in probabilistic creep damage assessments

N A Zentuti, J D Booker, R A W Bradford, C E Truman

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

2 Citations (Scopus)
77 Downloads (Pure)


This work presents methodologies for the examination of uncertainties in loading
conditions for incorporation in probabilistic creep-fatigue (CF) crack initiation
assessments. These approaches are based on the use of plant data for tran
sient (TR) as well as steady-operating (SO) conditions, with both potentially
having large contributions towards creep-fatigue damage. Conventionally, the
stress-states in a boiler plant component are found using thermal and mechani
cal (elastic) finite element (FE) models. The main inputs to these models are the
boiler steam temperatures, and the outputs are the six stress components (SCs)
and the metal temperature (MT) at the assessment location(s) of interest. The
proposed methodologies were developed based on experience gained from examining a tube-plate (TP) plant component, for which historical data was available. In a probabilistic assessment, the aim of these approaches is to replace time intensive FE runs with probabilistic alternatives which incorporate the variabilities in the loading conditions of interest. The value of these approaches lies in the avoidance of running FE models for every probabilistic trial (of which there typically may be more than 104), which would be computationally prohibitive.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104134
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
Early online date19 Jul 2020
Publication statusPublished - 1 Nov 2020


  • creep
  • damage
  • plant loading
  • uncertainties
  • probabalistic


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