Precursors and Correlates of Transient and Persistent Longitudinal Profiles of Psychotic Experiences from Late Childhood Through Early Adulthood

Background: Psychotic experiences (PEs) are reported by 5-10% of young people, although only a minority persist and develop into psychotic disorder. It is unclear what characteristics differentiate those with transient PEs from those with persistent experiences that are more likely to be of clinical relevance.
Aims: To investigate how longitudinal profiles of PEs, created from assessments at three different timepoints are influenced by early life and co-occurring factors.
Method: Using data from 8045 individuals from a birth-cohort study, longitudinal profiles of PEs based on semi-structured interviews conducted at 12, 18 and 24 years were defined. Environmental, cognitive, psychopathological and genetic determinants of these profiles were investigated along with related profiles to concurrent psychopathology and cognition.
Results: Following multiple imputations, the distribution of longitudinal profiles was: “No PEs” 65.7%; “Transient” 24.1%; “Low-frequency persistent” 8.4%; “High-frequency persistent” 1.7%. Individuals with persistent and high-frequency PEs, were more likely than those with transient PEs to have reported traumatic experiences, other psychopathology, a more externalised locus of control, reduced emotional stability and conscientious personality traits in childhood. These characteristics also differed between those who had any PE compared to those without.
Conclusions: These findings indicate that the same risk factors are associated with incidence as with persistence of PEs. Thus, it might be that the severity of exposure rather than the presence of specific disease-modifying factors is most likely to determine whether PEs are transient or persist and potentially develop into clinical disorder over time.