Predictive Modelling for Security Operations Economics

M Yearworth, B Monahan, D Pym

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)


Information security operations - necessary to protect the confidentiality, integrity, and availability of an organization's information systems against attacks - represent substantial investments in technologies, tools, and human resources. Typically, the relationship between the supplier of an information system and its users is regulated by a Service Level Agreement, and the supplier must determine the appropriate level of investment in operational resources in order to meet its contractual obligations whilst maintaining its economic viability. We contend that investment decisions should be based on analytic models of the behaviour of information systems in the context of the environmental threats they face. We describe a mathematical framework, together with a modelling philosophy, for capturing the structural and dynamical properties of systems and their associated security operations. We describe how a modelling tool (Demos2k) can be used to capture much of our conceptual framework, giving a detailed, experimental example. We show that our models are able to predict the economic consequences of investment decisions for security operations.
Translated title of the contributionPredictive Modelling for Security Operations Economics
Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationWorkshop on the Economics of Securing the Information Infrastructure (WESII 2006), Washington DC, USA
Number of pages24
Publication statusPublished - 24 Oct 2006

Bibliographical note

Conference Organiser: The Institute for Information Infrastructure Protection (I3P)


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