Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe

Nina Schuhen*, Nathalie Schaller, Hannah Bloomfield, David Brayshaw, Llorenc Lledo, Irene Cionni, Jana Sillmann

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

3 Citations (Scopus)
27 Downloads (Pure)

Abstract

European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill.
Original languageEnglish
Article numbere2020GL092360
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume49
Issue number11
Early online date27 May 2022
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 27 May 2022

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 776787 (S2S4E). The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped us to improve and clarify this manuscript.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022. The Authors.

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Predictive Skill of Teleconnection Patterns in Twentieth Century Seasonal Hindcasts and Their Relationship to Extreme Winter Temperatures in Europe'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this