European winter weather is dominated by several low-frequency teleconnection patterns, the main ones being the North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic/Western Russia and Scandinavian patterns. We analyze the century-long ERA-20C reanalysis and ASF-20C seasonal hindcast datasets and find that these patterns are subject to decadal variability and fluctuations in predictive skill. Using indices for determining periods of extreme cold or warm temperatures, we establish that the teleconnection patterns are, for some regions, significantly correlated or anti-correlated to cold or heat waves. The seasonal hindcasts are however only partly able to capture these relationships. There do not seem to be significant changes to the observed links between large-scale circulation patterns and extreme temperatures between periods of higher and lower predictive skill.
|Journal||Geophysical Research Letters|
|Early online date||27 May 2022|
|Publication status||Published - 27 May 2022|
Bibliographical noteFunding Information:
The authors have received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 776787 (S2S4E). The authors thank three anonymous reviewers for their comments, which helped us to improve and clarify this manuscript.
© 2022. The Authors.