Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model

Simone Mancini; Max Werner; Margarita Segou; Brian J. Baptie

doi:10.1785/0220200454

Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model

Simone Mancini^*, Max Werner, Margarita Segou, Brian J. Baptie

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

22 Citations (Scopus)

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Abstract

The development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of ~93,000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (UK) unconventional shale gas site during and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, in order to account for seismicity generated by pressurized fluid we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute towards producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	3471-3481
Number of pages	11
Journal	Seismological Research Letters
Volume	92
Issue number	6
Early online date	19 May 2021
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1785/0220200454
Publication status	Published - Nov 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The authors would also like to thank the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) for providing the datasets. Simone Mancini was supported by a Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP) studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/L002434/1) and by a studentship from the British Geological Survey (BGS) University Funding Initiative (BUFI) (S350). Maximilian Jonas Werner and

Funding Information:
Brian Baptie were supported by NERC (NE/R017956/1, “EQUIPT4RISK”). Maximilian Jonas Werner and Margarita Segou were supported by the European Union H2020 program (number 821115, “RISE”). Brian Baptie was also supported by the NERC Grant Number NE/R01809X/1. This work was also supported by the Bristol University Microseismic ProjectS (“BUMPS”) and by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) (Contribution Number 10149). SCEC is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1600087 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G17AC00047.

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© 2021 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.

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22 Citations
4 Article (Academic Journal)
1 Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the UK
Cremen, G., Werner, M. J. & Baptie, B., 31 Mar 2020, In: Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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25 Citations (Scopus)

200 Downloads (Pure)
A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design
Cremen, G. & Werner, M. J., 12 Oct 2020, In: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. 20, 10, p. 2701-2719 19 p.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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11 Citations (Scopus)

151 Downloads (Pure)
Stress transfer from opening hydraulic fractures controls the distribution of induced seismicity
Kettlety, T., Verdon, J. P., Werner, M. J. & Kendall, J. M., 1 Jan 2020, In: Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth. 125, 1, 21 p., e2019JB018794.
Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

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58 Citations (Scopus)

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1 Finished
1 Active

BGS Professor & Senior Research Fellow in Geophysics.
Werner, M. (Principal Investigator), Kendall, M. (Collaborator), Holmgren, J. M. (Researcher) & Cremen, G. J. (Researcher)
1/09/14 → 28/02/27
Project: Research
Evaluation, Quantification and Identification of Pathways and Targets for the assessment of Shale Gas RISK (EQUIPT4RISK)
Werner, M. (Principal Investigator), Holmgren, J. M. (Researcher) & Cremen, G. J. (Researcher)
1/09/18 → 31/08/23
Project: Research

Improving the Performance of Physics-based and Statistical Forecasts of Natural and Induced Seismicity
Mancini, S. (Author), Werner, M. (Supervisor) & Teanby, N. A. (Supervisor), 21 Jan 2021
Student thesis: Doctoral Thesis › Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

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Cite this

@article{d3c742c0a49a4e439ce7617dd50d7bac,

title = "Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model",

abstract = "The development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of \textasciitilde{}93,000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (UK) unconventional shale gas site during and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, in order to account for seismicity generated by pressurized fluid we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute towards producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development.",

author = "Simone Mancini and Max Werner and Margarita Segou and Baptie, \{Brian J.\}",

note = "Funding Information: The authors thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The authors would also like to thank the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) for providing the datasets. Simone Mancini was supported by a Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP) studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/L002434/1) and by a studentship from the British Geological Survey (BGS) University Funding Initiative (BUFI) (S350). Maximilian Jonas Werner and Funding Information: Brian Baptie were supported by NERC (NE/R017956/1, “EQUIPT4RISK”). Maximilian Jonas Werner and Margarita Segou were supported by the European Union H2020 program (number 821115, “RISE”). Brian Baptie was also supported by the NERC Grant Number NE/R01809X/1. This work was also supported by the Bristol University Microseismic ProjectS (“BUMPS”) and by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) (Contribution Number 10149). SCEC is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1600087 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G17AC00047. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.",

year = "2021",

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doi = "10.1785/0220200454",

language = "English",

volume = "92",

pages = "3471--3481",

journal = "Seismological Research Letters",

issn = "0895-0695",

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AU - Mancini, Simone

AU - Werner, Max

AU - Segou, Margarita

AU - Baptie, Brian J.

N1 - Funding Information: The authors thank the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments. The authors would also like to thank the UK Oil and Gas Authority (OGA) for providing the datasets. Simone Mancini was supported by a Great Western Four+ Doctoral Training Partnership (GW4+ DTP) studentship from the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (NE/L002434/1) and by a studentship from the British Geological Survey (BGS) University Funding Initiative (BUFI) (S350). Maximilian Jonas Werner and Funding Information: Brian Baptie were supported by NERC (NE/R017956/1, “EQUIPT4RISK”). Maximilian Jonas Werner and Margarita Segou were supported by the European Union H2020 program (number 821115, “RISE”). Brian Baptie was also supported by the NERC Grant Number NE/R01809X/1. This work was also supported by the Bristol University Microseismic ProjectS (“BUMPS”) and by the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) (Contribution Number 10149). SCEC is funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF) Cooperative Agreement EAR-1600087 and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Cooperative Agreement G17AC00047. Publisher Copyright: © 2021 Seismological Society of America. All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/11

Y1 - 2021/11

N2 - The development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of ~93,000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (UK) unconventional shale gas site during and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, in order to account for seismicity generated by pressurized fluid we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute towards producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development.

AB - The development of robust forecasts of human-induced seismicity is highly desirable to mitigate the effects of disturbing or damaging earthquakes. We assess the performance of a well-established statistical model, the Epidemic-Type Aftershock Sequence (ETAS) model, with a catalog of ~93,000 microearthquakes observed at the Preston New Road (UK) unconventional shale gas site during and after hydraulic fracturing of the PNR-1z and PNR-2 wells. Because ETAS was developed for slower loading rate tectonic seismicity, in order to account for seismicity generated by pressurized fluid we also generate three modified ETAS with background rates proportional to injection rates. We find that (1) the standard ETAS captures low seismicity between and after injections but is outperformed by the modified model during high seismicity periods, and (2) the injection-rate driven ETAS substantially improves when the forecast is calibrated on sleeve-specific pumping data. We finally forecast out-of-sample the PNR-2 seismicity using the average response to injection observed at PNR-1z, achieving better predictive skills than the in-sample standard ETAS. The insights from this study contribute towards producing informative seismicity forecasts for real-time decision making and risk mitigation techniques during unconventional shale gas development.

U2 - 10.1785/0220200454

DO - 10.1785/0220200454

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

SN - 0895-0695

VL - 92

SP - 3471

EP - 3481

JO - Seismological Research Letters

JF - Seismological Research Letters

IS - 6

ER -

Probabilistic Forecasting of Hydraulic Fracturing Induced Seismicity Using an Injection-Rate Driven ETAS Model

Abstract

Bibliographical note

Access to Document

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Research output

A New Procedure for Evaluating Ground Motion Models, with Application to Hydraulic-Fracture-Induced Seismicity in the UK

A novel approach to assessing nuisance risk from seismicity induced by UK shale gas development, with implications for future policy design

Stress transfer from opening hydraulic fractures controls the distribution of induced seismicity

Projects

BGS Professor & Senior Research Fellow in Geophysics.

Evaluation, Quantification and Identification of Pathways and Targets for the assessment of Shale Gas RISK (EQUIPT4RISK)

Student theses

Improving the Performance of Physics-based and Statistical Forecasts of Natural and Induced Seismicity

Cite this