Probabilistic treatment of pipe girth weld residual stress in fracture assessment

Matthew E Weltevreden*, Isabel Hadley, Harry Coules

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

5 Citations (Scopus)
16 Downloads (Pure)


This study examines the influence of probabilistic treatment of transverse residual stress in a structural integrity assessment. Pipe girth weld measurement data gathered from numerous studies was statistically interpreted to provide realistic through-thickness stress distributions for use in fracture assessments. The database measurements are shown to follow a normal distribution which is capable of evaluating a probabilistic interpretation of weld residual stress within a fracture assessment. A comparison between deterministic upper bounds, provided by various standards, and probabilistic interpretation was undertaken. The presented results propose a 42% reduction in the estimated probability of failure of the case study using a probabilistic assumption of residual stress. Direct implications include a more realistic model for treatment in fracture assessments which can in turn improve acceptance criteria and avoid unnecessary weld repairs.
Original languageEnglish
Article number104397
Number of pages11
JournalInternational Journal of Pressure Vessels and Piping
Early online date21 Apr 2021
Publication statusPublished - 1 Aug 2021


  • Residual stress
  • Girth welds
  • Probabilistic
  • Fracture assessment
  • Statistical analysis


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