Progression from childhood overweight to adolescent obesity in a large contemporary cohort

Context. The overweight – as distinct from obese – child is a potential target for obesity prevention interventions, on the assumption that overweight often progresses to obesity. However, there is limited empirical evidence on the probability that overweight progresses to obesity in contemporary children. Aim. To quantify progression from overweight to obesity in a large contemporary cohort of children. Methods. Changes in weight status were studied longitudinally in 7-year-olds (n=5 175) participating in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), over a 6-year period. Obesity was defined as BMI z-score ≥1.64 and overweight defined as BMI z-score ≥1.04 but