Progression to Decompensation of Severe Fibrosis Compared to Cirrhosis in MASLD: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background & Aims:

Metabolic associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is increasing in prevalence worldwide. Clinical practice is focused on identifying those with cirrhosis and monitoring for complications such as varices and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Non-invasive tests of fibrosis differentiate between F3 and F4 fibrosis poorly. People with F3 fibrosis may progress and develop decompensated liver disease. The aim of this review is to examine the progression to decompensated liver disease in patients with F3 fibrosis compared to those with F4 fibrosis.

Methods:

Searches were carried out in four databases; articles were screened by two independent reviewers against pre-specified inclusion and exclusion criteria.

Results:

Twenty-nine studies were included in the review: 12 with paired liver biopsies, 2 progression to cirrhosis, 13 progression to decompensation, 2 portal hypertension in F3 fibrosis and 13 on HCC in F3 fibrosis. Rates of progression on paired biopsies were 16%–30% over varied follow-up. Varices were found in 16% of patients with F3 fibrosis and rates of non-cirrhotic HCC varied from 37%–75%. Pooled univariate HR for F3 progression and F4 progression to major adverse liver outcomes (MALO) were 8.15 (95% CI 3.42–19.43) and 38.16 (95% CI 11.58–125.76), respectively.

Conclusions:

Progression to cirrhosis and decompensation events occurs in a significant proportion of patients with F3 fibrosis in MASLD. There is evidence of portal hypertension and HCC developing in F3 MASLD. Further work to identify risk groups, including those at risk of rapid progression to guide future clinical management is urgently required given the prognostic inflection of decompensated disease.