Prospective CSEP evaluation of 1-Day, 3-month, and 5-Yr earthquake forecasts for Italy

Matteo Taroni, Warner Marzocchi, Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian Werner, S. Wiemer, Jeremy D. Zechar, Lukas Heiniger, Fabian Euchner

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

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In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs. CSEP solicited forecasts for seismicity tomorrow, in the next three months, and for the entire 5 yrs. In those 5 yrs, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) recorded 83 target earthquakes with local magnitude 3:95 =M <4:95, and 14 larger shocks. The results show that 1-day forecasts are consistent with the number and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and one version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is also consistent with the spatial distribution; ensemble forecasts, which we created for the 1-day experiment, are consistent with the number, locations, and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and they perform as well as the best model; none of the 3-month time-independent models produce consistent forecasts; the best 5-yr models account for the fault distribution and the historical seismicity; and 5-yr models based on instrumental seismicity and b-value spatial variation show poor forecasting performance.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1251-1261
Number of pages11
JournalSeismological Research Letters
Issue number4
Early online date13 Jun 2018
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jul 2018


  • Earthquake
  • Seismology
  • earthquake forecasting and testing
  • probabilistic forecasting
  • Seismic hazard


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