TY - JOUR
T1 - Prospective CSEP evaluation of 1-Day, 3-month, and 5-Yr earthquake forecasts for Italy
AU - Taroni, Matteo
AU - Marzocchi, Warner
AU - Schorlemmer, Danijel
AU - Werner, Maximilian
AU - Wiemer, S.
AU - Zechar, Jeremy D.
AU - Heiniger, Lukas
AU - Euchner, Fabian
PY - 2018/7/1
Y1 - 2018/7/1
N2 - In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs. CSEP solicited forecasts for seismicity tomorrow, in the next three months, and for the entire 5 yrs. In those 5 yrs, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) recorded 83 target earthquakes with local magnitude 3:95 =M <4:95, and 14 larger shocks. The results show that 1-day forecasts are consistent with the number and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and one version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is also consistent with the spatial distribution; ensemble forecasts, which we created for the 1-day experiment, are consistent with the number, locations, and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and they perform as well as the best model; none of the 3-month time-independent models produce consistent forecasts; the best 5-yr models account for the fault distribution and the historical seismicity; and 5-yr models based on instrumental seismicity and b-value spatial variation show poor forecasting performance.
AB - In 2009, the global Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) launched three experiments to forecast the distribution of earthquakes in Italy in the subsequent 5 yrs. CSEP solicited forecasts for seismicity tomorrow, in the next three months, and for the entire 5 yrs. In those 5 yrs, the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) recorded 83 target earthquakes with local magnitude 3:95 =M <4:95, and 14 larger shocks. The results show that 1-day forecasts are consistent with the number and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and one version of the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is also consistent with the spatial distribution; ensemble forecasts, which we created for the 1-day experiment, are consistent with the number, locations, and magnitudes of the target earthquakes, and they perform as well as the best model; none of the 3-month time-independent models produce consistent forecasts; the best 5-yr models account for the fault distribution and the historical seismicity; and 5-yr models based on instrumental seismicity and b-value spatial variation show poor forecasting performance.
KW - Earthquake
KW - Seismology
KW - earthquake forecasting and testing
KW - probabilistic forecasting
KW - Seismic hazard
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85049810308&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1785/0220180031
DO - 10.1785/0220180031
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
AN - SCOPUS:85049810308
SN - 0895-0695
VL - 89
SP - 1251
EP - 1261
JO - Seismological Research Letters
JF - Seismological Research Letters
IS - 4
ER -