Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening and 15-year Prostate Cancer Mortality: A Secondary Analysis of the CAP Randomized Clinical Trial

Key Points

Question  In men aged 50 to 69 years, does a single invitation for a prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening test reduce prostate cancer mortality at 15-year follow-up compared with no invitation for testing?

Findings  In this secondary analysis of a randomized clinical trial of 415 357 men aged 50 to 69 years randomized to a single invitation for PSA screening (n = 195 912) or a control group without PSA screening (n = 219 445) and followed up for a median of 15 years, risk of death from prostate cancer was lower in the group invited to screening (0.69% vs 0.78%; mean difference, 0.09%) compared with the control group.

Meaning  Compared with no invitation for routine PSA testing, a single invitation for a PSA screening test reduced prostate cancer mortality at a median follow-up of 15 years, but the absolute mortality benefit was small.

Abstract

IMPORTANCE The Cluster randomized trial of PSA testing for Prostate cancer (CAP) reported no effect of prostate specific antigen (PSA) screening on prostate cancer mortality at median 10-year follow-up (primary outcome), but the long-term effects of PSA screening on prostate cancer mortality remain unclear.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate the effect of a single invitation for PSA screening on the pre-specified secondary outcome of prostate cancer-specific mortality at a median of 15 years’ follow-up, compared to a control group not invited for screening.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS Cluster randomized trial of men aged 50-69 identified from 573 primary-care practices in England and Wales. Primary-care practices were randomized between 09/25/2001 and 08/24/2007 and men were enrolled between 01/08/2002 and 01/20/2009. Follow-up was completed on 03/31/2021.

INTERVENTION A single invitation for a PSA screening test with subsequent diagnostic tests if PSA≥3.0ng/ml, compared to standard practice (control).
MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES The primary outcome was reported previously. Of eight prespecified secondary outcomes, results of four were reported previously. The four remaining pre-specified secondary outcomes at 15-year follow-up were prostate cancer-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and prostate cancer stage and Gleason grade at diagnosis.

RESULTS Of 415,357 randomized men (mean [SD] age: 59.0 [5.6] years), 98% were analyzed in these analyses. Overall, 12,013 and 12,958 men with prostate cancers were diagnosed in the intervention and control groups (15-year cumulative risks 7.1% and 6.9% respectively). At a median 15-year follow-up, 1,199 (0.69%) men in the intervention group and 1,451 (0.78%) men in the control group died of prostate cancer (rate ratio [RR] 0.92 [95% CI 0.85, 0.99]; p=0.03). Compared to the control group, the PSA screening intervention increased detection of low-grade (Gleason score [GS]≤6; 2.2% versus 1.6%;p<0.001) and localized (T1/T2; 3.6% versus 3.1%;p<0.001) disease, but not intermediate (GS=7), high-grade (GS≥8), locally-advanced (T3) or distally-advanced (T4/N1/M1) tumors. There were 45,084 all-cause deaths (23.2%) in the intervention group and 50,336 deaths (23.3%) in the control group respectively (RR 0.97 [95% CI 0.94, 1.01]; p=0.11). Eight deaths in the intervention and seven deaths in the control group were related to a diagnostic biopsy or prostate cancer treatment.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE A single invitation for PSA screening, compared to standard practice without routine screening, reduced the secondary outcome of prostate cancer deaths at a median follow-up of 15-years. However, the absolute reduction in deaths was small.