Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O Abundances

Megan Lickley; Susan Solomon; Doug Kinnison; Paul Krummel; Jens Mühle; Simon O'Doherty; Ronald Prinn; Matthew Rigby; Kane A. Stone; Peidong Wang; Ray Weiss; Dickon Young

doi:10.1029/2021GL093700

Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O Abundances

Megan Lickley^*, Susan Solomon, Doug Kinnison, Paul Krummel, Jens Mühle, Simon O'Doherty, Ronald Prinn, Matthew Rigby, Kane A. Stone, Peidong Wang, Ray Weiss, Dickon Young

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

For trace gases destroyed in the stratosphere, mass flux across the tropopause can substantially influence observed surface hemispheric differences (NH-SH). Here, we quantify associations between observed stratospheric and tropospheric NH-SH growth rate anomalies of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O. We employ a chemistry climate model along with satellite and global surface station observations. Our model explains 60% of observed N₂O NH-SH growth rate variability from 2005 to 2019, compared to 30% for CFC-11% and 40% for CFC-12, supporting evidence that unexpected anthropogenic emissions caused sustained positive NH-SH anomalies in these CFCs from 2012 to 2017. Between 2012 and 2015, the observed CFC-11 NH-SH difference grew by 1.7 ppt; our model explains 0.5 ± 0.1 ppt of this growth, but not the duration. Our model suggests that in the absence of further emission anomalies, new NH-SH positive tracer anomalies should have occurred in 2020, and predicts small negative anomalies in 2021.

Original language	English
Article number	e2021GL093700
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	48
Issue number	15
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093700
Publication status	Published - 16 Aug 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA-133-R15-CN-0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long-term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work.

Funding Information:
AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5‐12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA‐133‐R15‐CN‐0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long‐term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

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Lickley, M., Solomon, S., Kinnison, D., Krummel, P., Mühle, J., O'Doherty, S., Prinn, R., Rigby, M., Stone, K. A., Wang, P., Weiss, R., & Young, D. (2021). Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O Abundances. Geophysical Research Letters, 48(15), Article e2021GL093700. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093700

@article{08f32fdcac254cc4a635932e7785eb72,

title = "Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O Abundances",

abstract = "For trace gases destroyed in the stratosphere, mass flux across the tropopause can substantially influence observed surface hemispheric differences (NH-SH). Here, we quantify associations between observed stratospheric and tropospheric NH-SH growth rate anomalies of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O. We employ a chemistry climate model along with satellite and global surface station observations. Our model explains 60% of observed N2O NH-SH growth rate variability from 2005 to 2019, compared to 30% for CFC-11% and 40% for CFC-12, supporting evidence that unexpected anthropogenic emissions caused sustained positive NH-SH anomalies in these CFCs from 2012 to 2017. Between 2012 and 2015, the observed CFC-11 NH-SH difference grew by 1.7 ppt; our model explains 0.5 ± 0.1 ppt of this growth, but not the duration. Our model suggests that in the absence of further emission anomalies, new NH-SH positive tracer anomalies should have occurred in 2020, and predicts small negative anomalies in 2021.",

author = "Megan Lickley and Susan Solomon and Doug Kinnison and Paul Krummel and Jens M{\"u}hle and Simon O'Doherty and Ronald Prinn and Matthew Rigby and Stone, {Kane A.} and Peidong Wang and Ray Weiss and Dickon Young",

note = "Funding Information: AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA-133-R15-CN-0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long-term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work. Funding Information: AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5‐12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA‐133‐R15‐CN‐0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long‐term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.",

year = "2021",

month = aug,

day = "16",

doi = "10.1029/2021GL093700",

language = "English",

volume = "48",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

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Lickley, M, Solomon, S, Kinnison, D, Krummel, P, Mühle, J, O'Doherty, S, Prinn, R, Rigby, M, Stone, KA, Wang, P, Weiss, R & Young, D 2021, 'Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O Abundances', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 48, no. 15, e2021GL093700. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093700

TY - JOUR

T1 - Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O Abundances

AU - Lickley, Megan

AU - Solomon, Susan

AU - Kinnison, Doug

AU - Krummel, Paul

AU - Mühle, Jens

AU - O'Doherty, Simon

AU - Prinn, Ronald

AU - Rigby, Matthew

AU - Stone, Kane A.

AU - Wang, Peidong

AU - Weiss, Ray

AU - Young, Dickon

N1 - Funding Information: AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5-12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA-133-R15-CN-0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long-term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work. Funding Information: AGAGE operations at Mace Head, Trinidad Head, Cape Matatula, Ragged Point, and Cape Grim are supported by NASA Grants NAG5‐12669, NNX07AE89G, NNX11AF17G, and NNX16AC98G (to MIT) and NNX07AE87G, NNX07AF09G, NNX11AF15G, and NNX11AF16G (to SIO) with additional funding from Department for Business, Energy & Industrial Strategy (BEIS) Contract 1537/06/2018 (to the University of Bristol for Mace Head) and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Contracts RA‐133‐R15‐CN‐0008 and 1305M319CNRMJ0028 (to the University of Bristol for Ragged Point). The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO, Australia) and Bureau of Meteorology (Australia) are thanked for their ongoing long‐term support and funding of the Cape Grim station and the Cape Grim science program. ACE data provided by P. Bernath and J. Crouse; the ACE Mission (SCISAT) is supported by the Canadian Space Agency. The authors thank Peter Bernath for helpful discussions and Kasturi Shah for feedback on earlier drafts of the paper. M. Lickley was partly supported by a grant from VoLo Foundation. The authors thank Eric Ray and Michael Prather for helpful interactions on this work. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.

PY - 2021/8/16

Y1 - 2021/8/16

N2 - For trace gases destroyed in the stratosphere, mass flux across the tropopause can substantially influence observed surface hemispheric differences (NH-SH). Here, we quantify associations between observed stratospheric and tropospheric NH-SH growth rate anomalies of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O. We employ a chemistry climate model along with satellite and global surface station observations. Our model explains 60% of observed N2O NH-SH growth rate variability from 2005 to 2019, compared to 30% for CFC-11% and 40% for CFC-12, supporting evidence that unexpected anthropogenic emissions caused sustained positive NH-SH anomalies in these CFCs from 2012 to 2017. Between 2012 and 2015, the observed CFC-11 NH-SH difference grew by 1.7 ppt; our model explains 0.5 ± 0.1 ppt of this growth, but not the duration. Our model suggests that in the absence of further emission anomalies, new NH-SH positive tracer anomalies should have occurred in 2020, and predicts small negative anomalies in 2021.

AB - For trace gases destroyed in the stratosphere, mass flux across the tropopause can substantially influence observed surface hemispheric differences (NH-SH). Here, we quantify associations between observed stratospheric and tropospheric NH-SH growth rate anomalies of CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O. We employ a chemistry climate model along with satellite and global surface station observations. Our model explains 60% of observed N2O NH-SH growth rate variability from 2005 to 2019, compared to 30% for CFC-11% and 40% for CFC-12, supporting evidence that unexpected anthropogenic emissions caused sustained positive NH-SH anomalies in these CFCs from 2012 to 2017. Between 2012 and 2015, the observed CFC-11 NH-SH difference grew by 1.7 ppt; our model explains 0.5 ± 0.1 ppt of this growth, but not the duration. Our model suggests that in the absence of further emission anomalies, new NH-SH positive tracer anomalies should have occurred in 2020, and predicts small negative anomalies in 2021.

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U2 - 10.1029/2021GL093700

DO - 10.1029/2021GL093700

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SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 15

M1 - e2021GL093700

ER -

Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O Abundances

Abstract

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Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N2O Abundances

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Bibliographical note

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Quantifying the Imprints of Stratospheric Contributions to Interhemispheric Differences in Tropospheric CFC-11, CFC-12, and N₂O Abundances