To understand how ice masses in the Russian High Arctic respond to climate change, the processes that influence their current mass balance must be evaluated. A mass balance model was coupled with an ice flow model to determine the influence of the present climate regime on the dynamics of the Vavilov Ice Cap, October Revolution Island, Severnaya Zemlya. Model results show that the bulk of the ice cap is flowing relatively slowly, at a velocity of around 5 m yr-1. However, the climate regime encourages the ice cap to migrate towards the precipitation source in the south-west. The ice cap may not, therefore, be in equilibrium with the present climate. Given that the response time of the ice cap is of the order of 1000 years, this non-equilibrium may be related to changes in climate that occurred during the Little Ice Age, when the ice cap may have been positioned north of its present position.
|Translated title of the contribution||Quantifying the mass balance of ice caps on Severnaya Zemlya, Russian High Arctic. II: Modelling the mass balance and dynamics of the Vavilov Ice Cap|
|Pages (from-to)||13 - 20|
|Number of pages||8|
|Journal||Arctic, Antarctic and Alpine Research|
|Publication status||Published - Feb 2006|