Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections

Hannah Bloomfield*, David Brayshaw, Alberto Troccoli, Clare Goodess, Matteo De Felice, Laurent Dubus, Philip Bett, Yves-Marie Saint-Drenan

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

8 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate simulations consistently show an increase in European near-surface air temperature by the late 21st century, although projections for near-surface wind speeds and irradiance differ between models, and are accompanied by large natural variability. These factors make it difficult to estimate the effects of physical climate change on power system planning. Here, the impact of climate change on future European power systems is estimated.

We show for the first time how a set of divergent future power system scenarios lead to marked differences in Europe’s total energy balance (demand-net-renewable supply) by 2050, which dominate over the uncertainty associated with climate change (∼50% and ∼5% respectively). However, within any given power system scenario, national power systems may be subject to considerable impacts from climate change, particularly for seasonal differences between renewable resources (e.g., wind power may be impacted by ∼20% or more). There is little agreement between climate models in terms of the spatio-temporal pattern of these impacts, and even in the direction of change for wind and solar. More thorough consideration of climate uncertainty is therefore needed, as it is likely to be of great importance for robust future power system planning and design.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1062-1075
Number of pages14
JournalRenewable Energy
Volume164
Early online date9 Oct 2020
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Feb 2021

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
The authors would like to acknowledge funding for the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a programme implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission (grant number: 2015/C3S_441_Lot2_UEA). Brayshaw's contribution to the publication was supported in part by the PRIMAVERA project, funded by the European Union's Horizon 2020 programme, Grant Agreement no. 641727.

Funding Information:
The authors would like to acknowledge funding for the European Climatic Energy Mixes (ECEM) project by the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a programme implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf of the European Commission (grant number: 2015/C3S_441_Lot2_UEA). Brayshaw’s contribution to the publication was supported in part by the PRIMAVERA project, funded by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 programme, Grant Agreement no. 641727.

Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 The Authors

Keywords

  • demand
  • wind power
  • solar PV
  • climate change
  • uncertainty
  • scenarios

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'Quantifying the sensitivity of european power systems to energy scenarios and climate change projections'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this