Reassessing the link between adiposity and head and neck cancer: a Mendelian randomization study

Background: Adiposity has been associated with an increased risk of head and neck cancer (HNC). Although body mass index (BMI) has been inversely associated with HNC risk among smokers, this is likely due to confounding. Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) studies could not fully discount causality between adiposity and HNC due to limited statistical power. Hence, we aimed to revisit this using the largest genome-wide association study (GWAS) of HNC available, which has more granular data on HNC subsites. Methods: We assessed the genetically predicted effects of BMI (N=806,834), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; N=697,734) and waist circumference (N=232,101) on the risk of HNC (N=12,264 cases and 19,259 controls) and its subsites (oral, laryngeal, hypopharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancers) using a two-sample MR framework. We used the inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR approach and multiple sensitivity analyses including the weighted median, weighted mode, MR-Egger, MR-PRESSO, and CAUSE approaches. We also used multivariable MR (MVMR) to explore the direct effects of the adiposity measures on HNC, while accounting for smoking behaviour, a well-known HNC risk factor. Results: In univariable MR, higher genetically predicted BMI increased the risk of overall HNC (IVW OR=1.17 per 1 standard deviation [1-SD] higher BMI, 95% CI 1.02-1.34, p=0.03), with no heterogeneity across subsites (Q p=0.78). However, the effect was not consistent in sensitivity analyses. The IVW effect was attenuated when smoking was included in the MVMR model (OR accounting for comprehensive smoking index=0.96 per 1-SD higher BMI, 95% CI 0.80-1.15, p=0.64) and CAUSE indicated the IVW results could be biased by correlated pleiotropy. Furthermore, we did not find a link between genetically predicted WHR (IVW OR=1.05 per 1-SD higher WHR, 95% CI 0.89-1.24, p=0.53) or waist circumference and HNC risk (IVW OR=0.83 per 1-SD higher waist circumference, 95% CI 0.56-1.23, p=0.35). Conclusions: Our findings suggest that adiposity does not play a role in HNC risk.