Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

M. Rigby*, R. G. Prinn, S. O'Doherty, B. R. Miller, D. Ivy, J. Muehle, C. M. Harth, P. K. Salameh, T. Arnold, R. F. Weiss, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. J. Fraser, D. Young, P. G. Simmonds

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

73 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.

Key Points

Measurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2623-2630
Number of pages8
JournalGeophysical Research Letters
Volume41
Issue number7
Early online date4 Apr 2014
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 28 Apr 2014

Keywords

  • inverse modeling
  • radiative forcing
  • synthetic greenhouse gas
  • IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS
  • MONTREAL PROTOCOL
  • ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS
  • EMISSIONS
  • HYDROFLUOROCARBONS
  • PERFLUOROCARBONS
  • LIFETIMES
  • HISTORY
  • HCFC-22
  • STATION

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