Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

M. Rigby; R. G. Prinn; S. O'Doherty; B. R. Miller; D. Ivy; J. Muehle; C. M. Harth; P. K. Salameh; T. Arnold; R. F. Weiss; P. B. Krummel; L. P. Steele; P. J. Fraser; D. Young; P. G. Simmonds

doi:10.1002/2013GL059099

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

M. Rigby^*, R. G. Prinn, S. O'Doherty, B. R. Miller, D. Ivy, J. Muehle, C. M. Harth, P. K. Salameh, T. Arnold, R. F. Weiss, P. B. Krummel, L. P. Steele, P. J. Fraser, D. Young, P. G. Simmonds

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.

Key Points

Measurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2623-2630
Number of pages	8
Journal	Geophysical Research Letters
Volume	41
Issue number	7
Early online date	4 Apr 2014
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059099
Publication status	Published - 28 Apr 2014

Keywords

inverse modeling
radiative forcing
synthetic greenhouse gas
IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS
MONTREAL PROTOCOL
ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS
EMISSIONS
HYDROFLUOROCARBONS
PERFLUOROCARBONS
LIFETIMES
HISTORY
HCFC-22
STATION

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Rigby et al._2014Final published version, 552 KB

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/2013GL059099/abstract

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Advanced computing architecture to support the estimation and reporting of UK GHG emissions
Rigby, M. L. (Principal Investigator)
13/11/13 → 13/10/15
Project: Research
Towards treaty verification of all non-CO2 greenhouse gasses - Dr Matthew Rigby
Rigby, M. L. (Principal Investigator)
1/01/12 → 31/12/16
Project: Research

Professor Simon O'Doherty
- S.ODohertybristol.acuk
- School of Chemistry - Professor of Atmospheric Chemistry
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
- Atmospheric Chemistry
Person: Academic , Member, Group lead
Professor Matthew L Rigby
- Matt.Rigbybristol.acuk
- School of Chemistry - Professor
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
Person: Academic , Member

Cite this

Rigby, M., Prinn, R. G., O'Doherty, S., Miller, B. R., Ivy, D., Muehle, J., Harth, C. M., Salameh, P. K., Arnold, T., Weiss, R. F., Krummel, P. B., Steele, L. P., Fraser, P. J., Young, D., & Simmonds, P. G. (2014). Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Geophysical Research Letters, 41(7), 2623-2630. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL059099

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title = "Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing",

abstract = "Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Key PointsMeasurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated",

keywords = "inverse modeling, radiative forcing, synthetic greenhouse gas, IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS, MONTREAL PROTOCOL, ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS, EMISSIONS, HYDROFLUOROCARBONS, PERFLUOROCARBONS, LIFETIMES, HISTORY, HCFC-22, STATION",

author = "M. Rigby and Prinn, {R. G.} and S. O'Doherty and Miller, {B. R.} and D. Ivy and J. Muehle and Harth, {C. M.} and Salameh, {P. K.} and T. Arnold and Weiss, {R. F.} and Krummel, {P. B.} and Steele, {L. P.} and Fraser, {P. J.} and D. Young and Simmonds, {P. G.}",

year = "2014",

month = apr,

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doi = "10.1002/2013GL059099",

language = "English",

volume = "41",

pages = "2623--2630",

journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",

issn = "0094-8276",

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TY - JOUR

T1 - Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

AU - Rigby, M.

AU - Prinn, R. G.

AU - O'Doherty, S.

AU - Miller, B. R.

AU - Ivy, D.

AU - Muehle, J.

AU - Harth, C. M.

AU - Salameh, P. K.

AU - Arnold, T.

AU - Weiss, R. F.

AU - Krummel, P. B.

AU - Steele, L. P.

AU - Fraser, P. J.

AU - Young, D.

AU - Simmonds, P. G.

PY - 2014/4/28

Y1 - 2014/4/28

N2 - Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Key PointsMeasurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated

AB - Atmospheric measurements show that emissions of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and hydrochlorofluorocarbons are now the primary drivers of the positive growth in synthetic greenhouse gas (SGHG) radiative forcing. We infer recent SGHG emissions and examine the impact of future emissions scenarios, with a particular focus on proposals to reduce HFC use under the Montreal Protocol. If these proposals are implemented, overall SGHG radiative forcing could peak at around 355mWm(-2) in 2020, before declining by approximately 26% by 2050, despite continued growth of fully fluorinated greenhouse gas emissions. Compared to no HFC policy projections, this amounts to a reduction in radiative forcing of between 50 and 240mWm(-2) by 2050 or a cumulative emissions saving equivalent to 0.5 to 2.8years of CO2 emissions at current levels. However, more complete reporting of global HFC emissions is required, as less than half of global emissions are currently accounted for.Key PointsMeasurements of all the major synthetic greenhouse gases have been compiled These measurements have been used to infer recent global emissions trends Based on these trends, future emissions scenarios have been investigated

KW - inverse modeling

KW - radiative forcing

KW - synthetic greenhouse gas

KW - IN-SITU MEASUREMENTS

KW - MONTREAL PROTOCOL

KW - ATMOSPHERIC MEASUREMENTS

KW - EMISSIONS

KW - HYDROFLUOROCARBONS

KW - PERFLUOROCARBONS

KW - LIFETIMES

KW - HISTORY

KW - HCFC-22

KW - STATION

U2 - 10.1002/2013GL059099

DO - 10.1002/2013GL059099

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 41

SP - 2623

EP - 2630

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

IS - 7

ER -

Recent and future trends in synthetic greenhouse gas radiative forcing

Abstract

Keywords

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Projects

Advanced computing architecture to support the estimation and reporting of UK GHG emissions

Towards treaty verification of all non-CO2 greenhouse gasses - Dr Matthew Rigby

Profiles

Professor Simon O'Doherty

Professor Matthew L Rigby

Cite this