TY - JOUR
T1 - Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest
T2 - A review
AU - Rouwet, Dmitri
AU - Sandri, Laura
AU - Marzocchi, Warner
AU - Gottsmann, Joachim
AU - Selva, Jacopo
AU - Tonini, Roberto
AU - Papale, Paolo
PY - 2014/12/1
Y1 - 2014/12/1
N2 - Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.
AB - Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.
KW - Event tree
KW - Forecasting
KW - Non-magmatic unrest
KW - Volcanic hazard
KW - Volcanic surveillance
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84962124801&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3
DO - 10.1186/s13617-014-0017-3
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
AN - SCOPUS:84962124801
SN - 2191-5040
VL - 3
JO - Journal of Applied Volcanology
JF - Journal of Applied Volcanology
M1 - 17
ER -