Recognizing and tracking volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest: A review

Dmitri Rouwet*, Laura Sandri, Warner Marzocchi, Joachim Gottsmann, Jacopo Selva, Roberto Tonini, Paolo Papale

*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

41 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Eruption forecasting is a major goal in volcanology. Logically, but unfortunately, forecasting hazards related to non-magmatic unrest is too often overshadowed by eruption forecasting, although many volcanoes often pass through states of non-eruptive and non-magmatic unrest for various and prolonged periods of time. Volcanic hazards related to non-magmatic unrest can be highly violent and/or destructive (e.g., phreatic eruptions, secondary lahars), can lead into magmatic and eventually eruptive unrest, and can be more difficult to forecast than magmatic unrest, for various reasons. The duration of a state of non-magmatic unrest and the cause, type and locus of hazardous events can be highly variable. Moreover, non-magmatic hazards can be related to factors external to the volcano (e.g., climate, earthquake). So far, monitoring networks are often limited to the usual seismic-ground deformation-gas network, whereas recognizing indicators for non-magmatic unrest requires additional approaches. In this study we summarize non-magmatic unrest processes and potential indicators for related hazards. We propose an event-tree to classify non-magmatic unrest, which aims to cover all major hazardous outcomes. This structure could become useful for future probabilistic non-magmatic hazard assessments, and might reveal clues for future monitoring strategies.

Original languageEnglish
Article number17
JournalJournal of Applied Volcanology
Volume3
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 1 Dec 2014

Keywords

  • Event tree
  • Forecasting
  • Non-magmatic unrest
  • Volcanic hazard
  • Volcanic surveillance

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