Risk modelling of catastrophic seismic events

Alin Radu, Mircea Grigoriu

Research output: Contribution to conferenceConference Paperpeer-review

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The evaluation of the seismic risk relies on the vulnerability of structural systems as functions of seismic intensity measures, such as the spectral acceleration. For these intensity measures to be sufficient, they need to fully define the response of the structural systems. This is possible only under the assumption that the response of complex structural system can be accurately approximated by the response of linear single-degree of freedom systems. Usually, these extreme events are often characterized by large magnitudes and relatively short epicentral distances. The response of structures subjected to such extreme excitation is highly non-linear, which exhibits a weak dependence between values of the spectral acceleration and the demand parameters. The correlation between ground-motion parameters and the structural demand must be analyzed using metrics of their statistical dependence.

It is proposed to use directly parameters of the seismic process itself, such as the moment
magnitude m and the epicentral distance r, which characterize more accurately the amplitudes and frequency content of the ground motion. Extreme-value theory is used to quantify the dependence between (m,r) and the structural demand. Simple linear and nonlinear systems subjected to ground motion-records of catastrophic events are used for numerical examples. Finally, the structural performance under seismic loading is evaluated using the traditional seismic intensity measures and the proposed ground-motion parameters, to compare the efficiency of the two approaches.
Original languageEnglish
Publication statusPublished - 28 Jun 2018
EventEleventh U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering - Los Angeles, United States
Duration: 25 Jun 201829 Jun 2018


ConferenceEleventh U.S. National Conference on Earthquake Engineering
Abbreviated title11NCEE
Country/TerritoryUnited States
CityLos Angeles


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