Scaling-up Hepatitis C Prevention and Treatment Interventions for Achieving Elimination in the United States – a Rural and Urban Comparison

In the U.S. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) transmission is increasing among people who inject drugs (PWID). Many regions have insufficient prevention intervention coverage. Using modelling, we investigate the impact of scaling-up prevention and treatment interventions on HCV transmission among PWID in Perry County, Kentucky (PC), and San Francisco, California (SF), where HCV sero-prevalence among PWID is >50%. A greater proportion of PWID access medication-assisted treatment (MAT) or syringe service programs (SSP) in urban SF (established community) than rural PC (young, expanding community). We model the proportion of HCV-infected PWID needing HCV-treatment annually to reduce HCV-incidence by 90% by 2030, with and without MAT scale-up (50% coverage, both settings) and SSP scale-up (PC only) from 2017. With current MAT&SSP coverage during 2017-2030, HCV-incidence will increase in PC (21.3 to 22.6 per 100 person-years (/100pyrs)) and decrease in SF (12.9 to 11.9/100pyrs). With concurrent MAT&SSP scale-up, 5%/year of HCV-infected PWID need HCV-treatment in PC to achieve incidence targets; 13%/year without MAT&SSP scale-up. In SF, a similar proportion need HCV-treatment (10%/year) irrespective of MAT scale-up. Reaching the same impact by 2025 requires increases in treatment rates of 45-82%. Achievable provision of HCV-treatment, alongside MAT&SSP scale-up (PC) and MAT scale-up (SF), could reduce HCV-incidence.