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Scientific uncertainty and climate change: Part II. Uncertainty and mitigation

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)39-52
Number of pages14
JournalClimatic Change
Volume124
Issue number1-2
DOIs
DatePublished - 1 Jan 2014

Abstract

In public debate surrounding climate change, scientific uncertainty is often cited in connection with arguments against mitigative action. This article examines the role of uncertainty about future climate change in determining the likely success or failure of mitigative action. We show by Monte Carlo simulation that greater uncertainty translates into a greater likelihood that mitigation efforts will fail to limit global warming to a target (e.g., 2 °C). The effect of uncertainty can be reduced by limiting greenhouse gas emissions. Taken together with the fact that greater uncertainty also increases the potential damages arising from unabated emissions (Lewandowsky et al. 2014), any appeal to uncertainty implies a stronger, rather than weaker, need to cut greenhouse gas emissions than in the absence of uncertainty.

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