Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Louise A Rutterford; Stephen D Simpson; Bjarte Bogstad; Jennifer A Devine; Martin J Genner

doi:10.1111/gcb.16633

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Louise A Rutterford^*, Stephen D Simpson, Bjarte Bogstad, Jennifer A Devine, Martin J Genner

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

27 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	2510-2521
Number of pages	12
Journal	Global Change Biology
Volume	29
Issue number	9
Early online date	10 Mar 2023
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16633
Publication status	Published - 4 Apr 2023

Bibliographical note

Funding Information:
We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. & S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC‐Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1).

Funding Information:
We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. & S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC-Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1).

Publisher Copyright:
© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND MICROECOLOGICAL PATTERNS IN AN EXPLOITED MARINE FISH ASSEMBLAGE
Genner, M. J. (Principal Investigator)
1/05/08 → 1/05/11
Project: Research

Cite this

@article{298ea858bcfd4a269c672c497f738142,

title = "Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas",

abstract = "Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.",

author = "Rutterford, \{Louise A\} and Simpson, \{Stephen D\} and Bjarte Bogstad and Devine, \{Jennifer A\} and Genner, \{Martin J\}",

note = "Funding Information: We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. \& S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC‐Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1). Funding Information: We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. \& S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC-Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1). Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley \& Sons Ltd.",

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AU - Rutterford, Louise A

AU - Simpson, Stephen D

AU - Bogstad, Bjarte

AU - Devine, Jennifer A

AU - Genner, Martin J

N1 - Funding Information: We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. & S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC‐Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1). Funding Information: We thank the national survey teams and contributors to the International Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) fisheries survey datasets. We also thank the Centre for Environment Fisheries and Aquaculture Science UK (Cefas) for supporting this research through both funding and fisheries survey data support. We really appreciate the specific help from Meadhbh Moriarty and Chris Lynam with extracting and collating fisheries data, the Institute of Marine Research (IMR) in Bergen for sharing Norwegian survey data and Jonathan Tinker from the Met Office for guidance on appropriate climate models. We thank the anonymous referee for valuable comments. This work was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC)/Department for Environment Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) Sustainable Marine Bioresources program award (M.J.G. & S.D.S. NE/F001878/1) and NERC-Cefas CASE PhD Studentship (L.A.R., NE/L501669/1). Publisher Copyright: © 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

PY - 2023/4/4

Y1 - 2023/4/4

N2 - Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.

AB - Climate change has strongly influenced the distribution and abundance of marine fish species, leading to concern about effects of future climate on commercially harvested stocks. Understanding the key drivers of large-scale spatial variation across present-day marine assemblages enables predictions of future change. Here we present a unique analysis of standardised abundance data for 198 marine fish species from across the Northeast Atlantic collected by 23 surveys and 31,502 sampling events between 2005 and 2018. Our analyses of the spatially comprehensive standardised data identified temperature as the key driver of fish community structure across the region, followed by salinity and depth. We employed these key environmental variables to model how climate change will affect both the distributions of individual species and local community structure for the years 2050 and 2100 under multiple emissions scenarios. Our results consistently indicate that projected climate change will lead to shifts in species communities across the entire region. Overall, the greatest community-level changes are predicted at locations with greater warming, with the most pronounced effects at higher latitudes. Based on these results, we suggest that future climate-driven warming will lead to widespread changes in opportunities for commercial fisheries across the region.

U2 - 10.1111/gcb.16633

DO - 10.1111/gcb.16633

M3 - Article (Academic Journal)

C2 - 36896634

SN - 1354-1013

VL - 29

SP - 2510

EP - 2521

JO - Global Change Biology

JF - Global Change Biology

IS - 9

ER -

Sea temperature is the primary driver of recent and predicted fish community structure across Northeast Atlantic shelf seas

Abstract

Bibliographical note

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CLIMATE CHANGE AND MICROECOLOGICAL PATTERNS IN AN EXPLOITED MARINE FISH ASSEMBLAGE

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