Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale

Florian Pappenberger, Fredrik Wetterhall, Emanuel Dutra, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Konrad Bogner, Lorenzo Alfieri, Hannah L. Cloke

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Early warning systems of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, strong winds and wild fires as well as vector-borne diseases, at the global scale, are essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas and potential increase in the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in the last year developed prototype early warning systems for floods, droughts, extreme winds, wild forest fires and malaria transmission. This paper assesses the performance of these systems. By providing a comprehensive skill assessment both on a global level and in selected regions, we aim to assess their suitability for eventual integration into decision-support frameworks.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationIAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
PublisherIAHS Press
Pages3-10
Number of pages8
Volume359
ISBN (Print)9781907161377
Publication statusPublished - 1 Jan 2013
Event2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology - Gothenburg, United Kingdom
Duration: 22 Jul 201326 Jul 2013

Conference

Conference2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityGothenburg
Period22/07/1326/07/13

Keywords

  • Droughts
  • ECMWF
  • Ensemble
  • Fire
  • Floods
  • Forecasting
  • Malaria

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