Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale

Florian Pappenberger; Fredrik Wetterhall; Emanuel Dutra; Francesca Di Giuseppe; Konrad Bogner; Lorenzo Alfieri; Hannah L. Cloke

Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale

Florian Pappenberger, Fredrik Wetterhall, Emanuel Dutra, Francesca Di Giuseppe, Konrad Bogner, Lorenzo Alfieri, Hannah L. Cloke

School of Geographical Sciences

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

18 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Early warning systems of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, strong winds and wild fires as well as vector-borne diseases, at the global scale, are essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas and potential increase in the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in the last year developed prototype early warning systems for floods, droughts, extreme winds, wild forest fires and malaria transmission. This paper assesses the performance of these systems. By providing a comprehensive skill assessment both on a global level and in selected regions, we aim to assess their suitability for eventual integration into decision-support frameworks.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports
Publisher	IAHS Press
Pages	3-10
Number of pages	8
Volume	359
ISBN (Print)	9781907161377
Publication status	Published - 1 Jan 2013
Event	2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology - Gothenburg, United Kingdom Duration: 22 Jul 2013 → 26 Jul 2013

Conference

Conference	2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology
Country/Territory	United Kingdom
City	Gothenburg
Period	22/07/13 → 26/07/13

Keywords

Droughts
ECMWF
Ensemble
Fire
Floods
Forecasting
Malaria

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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Cite this

@inproceedings{422bd49dee734026bfac6f57e67a8354,

title = "Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale",

abstract = "Early warning systems of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, strong winds and wild fires as well as vector-borne diseases, at the global scale, are essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas and potential increase in the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in the last year developed prototype early warning systems for floods, droughts, extreme winds, wild forest fires and malaria transmission. This paper assesses the performance of these systems. By providing a comprehensive skill assessment both on a global level and in selected regions, we aim to assess their suitability for eventual integration into decision-support frameworks.",

keywords = "Droughts, ECMWF, Ensemble, Fire, Floods, Forecasting, Malaria",

author = "Florian Pappenberger and Fredrik Wetterhall and Emanuel Dutra and {Di Giuseppe}, Francesca and Konrad Bogner and Lorenzo Alfieri and Cloke, {Hannah L.}",

year = "2013",

month = jan,

day = "1",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781907161377",

volume = "359",

pages = "3--10",

booktitle = "IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports",

publisher = "IAHS Press",

note = "2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology ; Conference date: 22-07-2013 Through 26-07-2013",

}

Pappenberger, F, Wetterhall, F, Dutra, E, Di Giuseppe, F, Bogner, K, Alfieri, L & Cloke, HL 2013, Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale. in IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports. vol. 359, IAHS Press, pp. 3-10, 2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology, Gothenburg, United Kingdom, 22/07/13.

TY - GEN

T1 - Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale

AU - Pappenberger, Florian

AU - Wetterhall, Fredrik

AU - Dutra, Emanuel

AU - Di Giuseppe, Francesca

AU - Bogner, Konrad

AU - Alfieri, Lorenzo

AU - Cloke, Hannah L.

PY - 2013/1/1

Y1 - 2013/1/1

N2 - Early warning systems of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, strong winds and wild fires as well as vector-borne diseases, at the global scale, are essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas and potential increase in the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in the last year developed prototype early warning systems for floods, droughts, extreme winds, wild forest fires and malaria transmission. This paper assesses the performance of these systems. By providing a comprehensive skill assessment both on a global level and in selected regions, we aim to assess their suitability for eventual integration into decision-support frameworks.

AB - Early warning systems of extreme events, such as floods, droughts, strong winds and wild fires as well as vector-borne diseases, at the global scale, are essential due to the combined threat of increased population settlement in vulnerable areas and potential increase in the intensity of extreme weather due to climate change. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has in the last year developed prototype early warning systems for floods, droughts, extreme winds, wild forest fires and malaria transmission. This paper assesses the performance of these systems. By providing a comprehensive skill assessment both on a global level and in selected regions, we aim to assess their suitability for eventual integration into decision-support frameworks.

KW - Droughts

KW - ECMWF

KW - Ensemble

KW - Fire

KW - Floods

KW - Forecasting

KW - Malaria

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=84901355182&partnerID=8YFLogxK

M3 - Conference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

AN - SCOPUS:84901355182

SN - 9781907161377

VL - 359

SP - 3

EP - 10

BT - IAHS-AISH Proceedings and Reports

PB - IAHS Press

T2 - 2013 International Association of Hydrological Sciences (IAHS) Symposium on Climate and Land Surface Changes in Hydrology

Y2 - 22 July 2013 through 26 July 2013

ER -

Seamless forecasting of extreme events on a global scale

Abstract

Conference

Keywords

UN SDGs

Handle.net

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