Projects per year
Abstract
Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decision-making regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.
Original language | English |
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Number of pages | 24 |
Journal | Pure and Applied Geophysics |
Early online date | 13 Jun 2017 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 13 Jun 2017 |
Keywords
- Megathrust earthquakes
- tsunai hazard curves and maps
- Bayesian model selection
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Projects
- 1 Finished
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CRUST: Cascading Risk and Uncertainty assessment of earthquake Shaking & Tsunami
1/10/14 → 31/03/18
Project: Research