Small-area estimates of stunting. Mexico 2010: Based on a hierarchical Bayesian estimator

The Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 2.2 proposes ending stunting and wasting in children under five years of age by 2025. In Mexico, progress in the reduction of stunting has slowed in the 21st century. One of the challenges in tackling stunting is that it has become more concentrated in certain areas, but there are no data detailing its precise location. This paper produces the first small-area estimates of stunting for the Mexican municipalities by applying a hierarchical Bayesian estimator using data from a nationally representative survey (ENSANUT 2012, in Spanish) and the sample of the National Housing and Population Census 2010. The findings suggest the existence of large within-state differences in the prevalence of stunting and that this phenomenon is highly spatially clustered. The paper also illustrates the value of the small-area stunting estimates by performing a spatial analysis on the relationship between stunting and food insecurity at the municipal level.