Social clustering of preference for female genital mutilation/cutting (FGMC) in South-Central Ethiopia

Recent estimates indicate half of Ethiopian girls aged 15 to 19 have experienced female genital mutilation/cutting (FGMC). Establishing whether and how pro-FGMC norms are maintained through social transmission is a key priority for global eradication efforts. Here, we present the first large-scale socio-centric social network study estimating social influence and social selection on preference for cutting female relatives using data from 5163 Ethiopian Arsi Oromo adults. Bayesian modelling, which accounts for network dependence in cross-sectional data, finds signals of ‘contagion’ within chatting, respect, and money-borrowing networks. This indicates social influence contributes to FGMC maintenance. We find no clear evidence of social selection within marriage advice networks, suggesting these networks are not implicated in FGMC maintenance. Contrary to assumptions underpinning current eradication efforts, we find negligible evidence that FGMC is a social-coordination norm (with only 6.3% endorsement), or an empirical or normative expectation. We conclude by making intervention design recommendations.