Spatial-Temporal Dynamics of Gas Consumption in England and Wales: Assessing the Residential Sector Using Sequence Analysis

The UK has a long history of observing energy vulnerability through fuel affordability and energy efficiency. This does not encapsulate the wider drivers that give rise to a household’s inability to afford an adequate level of energy service. Research has filled this void through combining known drivers in the form of a composite index. However, these studies are temporally static, where monitoring progress and the identification of areas with entrenched energy vulnerability can’t take shape. The consideration of time is a necessity as the physical and mental health implications from energy vulnerability are known to compound overtime. We fill such a void by designing a new spatial temporal composite indicator using socio- economic and dwelling measures at 2011 and 2021 within English and Welsh neighbourhoods. Our results outline a stagnation of energy vulnerabilities, with greater risk assigned towards urban areas. A sensitivity analysis allows us to adapt the weighting of vulnerability domains, with a select few neighbourhoods identified as continually vulnerable across all unique weighting combinations. Such areas have faced an extended period of deprivation, where we advocate policy targeting to raise living standards.