The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

Danijel Schorlemmer, Maximilian Werner, Warner Marzocchi, Thomas H. Jordan, Yosihiki Ogata, David D. Jackson, Sum Mak, David A. Rhoades, Matthew C. Gerstenberger, Naoshi Hirata, Maria Liukis, Philip Maechling, Anne Strader, Matteo Taroni, S. Wiemer, Jeremy D. Zechar, Jiancang Zhuang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

32 Citations (Scopus)
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Abstract

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)1305-1313
Number of pages9
JournalSeismological Research Letters
Volume89
Issue number4
Early online date13 Jun 2018
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2018

Keywords

  • Earthquake
  • Seismology
  • earthquake forecasting and testing
  • probabilistic forecasting
  • Seismic hazard

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