TY - JOUR
T1 - The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
T2 - Achievements and Priorities
AU - Schorlemmer, Danijel
AU - Werner, Maximilian
AU - Marzocchi, Warner
AU - Jordan, Thomas H.
AU - Ogata, Yosihiki
AU - Jackson, David D.
AU - Mak, Sum
AU - Rhoades, David A.
AU - Gerstenberger, Matthew C.
AU - Hirata, Naoshi
AU - Liukis, Maria
AU - Maechling, Philip
AU - Strader, Anne
AU - Taroni, Matteo
AU - Wiemer, S.
AU - Zechar, Jeremy D.
AU - Zhuang, Jiancang
PY - 2018/7
Y1 - 2018/7
N2 - The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
AB - The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and to improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at the global scale, and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new, and sometimes surprising, insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
KW - Earthquake
KW - Seismology
KW - earthquake forecasting and testing
KW - probabilistic forecasting
KW - Seismic hazard
U2 - 10.1785/0220180053
DO - 10.1785/0220180053
M3 - Article (Academic Journal)
VL - 89
SP - 1305
EP - 1313
JO - Seismological Research Letters
JF - Seismological Research Letters
SN - 0895-0695
IS - 4
ER -