The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Frank Pattyn; Catherine Ritz; Edward Hanna; Xylar Asay-Davis; Rob DeConto; Gaël Durand; Lionel Favier; Xavier Fettweis; Heiko Goelzer; Nicholas R. Golledge; Peter Kuipers Munneke; Jan T.M. Lenaerts; Sophie Nowicki; Antony J. Payne; Alexander Robinson; Hélène Seroussi; Luke D. Trusel; Michiel van den Broeke

doi:10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Frank Pattyn^*, Catherine Ritz, Edward Hanna, Xylar Asay-Davis, Rob DeConto, Gaël Durand, Lionel Favier, Xavier Fettweis, Heiko Goelzer, Nicholas R. Golledge, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Jan T.M. Lenaerts, Sophie Nowicki, Antony J. Payne, Alexander Robinson, Hélène Seroussi, Luke D. Trusel, Michiel van den Broeke

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Review article (Academic Journal) › peer-review

155 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	1053-1061
Number of pages	9
Journal	Nature Climate Change
Volume	8
Issue number	12
Early online date	12 Nov 2018
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8
Publication status	Published - 1 Dec 2018

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Pattyn, F., Ritz, C., Hanna, E., Asay-Davis, X., DeConto, R., Durand, G., Favier, L., Fettweis, X., Goelzer, H., Golledge, N. R., Kuipers Munneke, P., Lenaerts, J. T. M., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Robinson, A., Seroussi, H., Trusel, L. D., & van den Broeke, M. (2018). The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming. Nature Climate Change, 8(12), 1053-1061. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

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title = "The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming",

abstract = "Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.",

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Pattyn, F, Ritz, C, Hanna, E, Asay-Davis, X, DeConto, R, Durand, G, Favier, L, Fettweis, X, Goelzer, H, Golledge, NR, Kuipers Munneke, P, Lenaerts, JTM, Nowicki, S, Payne, AJ, Robinson, A, Seroussi, H, Trusel, LD & van den Broeke, M 2018, 'The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming', Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, no. 12, pp. 1053-1061. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-018-0305-8

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AU - Pattyn, Frank

AU - Ritz, Catherine

AU - Hanna, Edward

AU - Asay-Davis, Xylar

AU - DeConto, Rob

AU - Durand, Gaël

AU - Favier, Lionel

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Goelzer, Heiko

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Kuipers Munneke, Peter

AU - Lenaerts, Jan T.M.

AU - Nowicki, Sophie

AU - Payne, Antony J.

AU - Robinson, Alexander

AU - Seroussi, Hélène

AU - Trusel, Luke D.

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

PY - 2018/12/1

Y1 - 2018/12/1

N2 - Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

AB - Even if anthropogenic warming were constrained to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial, the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets will continue to lose mass this century, with rates similar to those observed over the past decade. However, nonlinear responses cannot be excluded, which may lead to larger rates of mass loss. Furthermore, large uncertainties in future projections still remain, pertaining to knowledge gaps in atmospheric (Greenland) and oceanic (Antarctica) forcing. On millennial timescales, both ice sheets have tipping points at or slightly above the 1.5–2.0 °C threshold; for Greenland, this may lead to irreversible mass loss due to the surface mass balance–elevation feedback, whereas for Antarctica, this could result in a collapse of major drainage basins due to ice-shelf weakening.

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VL - 8

SP - 1053

EP - 1061

JO - Nature Climate Change

JF - Nature Climate Change

IS - 12

ER -

The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

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iSTAR-C - Dynamical control on the response of Pine Island Glacier

USING INTER-GLACIALS TO ASSESS FUTURE SEA-LEVEL SCENARIOS (iGlass)

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The Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets under 1.5 °C global warming

Abstract

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iSTAR-C - Dynamical control on the response of Pine Island Glacier

USING INTER-GLACIALS TO ASSESS FUTURE SEA-LEVEL SCENARIOS (iGlass)

Cite this