The Impact of Scale on Probabilistic Flood Inundation Maps Using a 2D Hydraulic Model with Uncertain Boundary Conditions

James Savage, Paul Bates, Jim Freer, Jeffrey Neal, Giuseppe Aronica

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference Contribution (Conference Proceeding)

6 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Recent international flood events have demonstrated the large damage and potential loss of life that flooding can cause. In order to accurately quantify flood risk and how it may change in the future, we need to improve our understanding of the uncertainties associated with making such predictions. Improvements in remote sensing have facilitated the use of high resolution models; however, without consideration of the uncertainties, these models can produce spuriously precise predictions. This paper has explored this by assessing how changing the scale of flood inundation models impacts on probabilistic flood inundation and flood hazard maps for the Imera basin, Sicily. We have demonstrated that, although coarse scale models can perform just as well as fine scale models, the results are dependent on both grid scale and likelihood measure. Furthermore, these results have highlighted the uncertainty associated with flood inundation predictions and the need to consider these uncertainties when performing flood risk analysis.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationVulnerability, Uncertainty, and Risk: Quantification, Mitigation, and Management - Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
PublisherASCE
Pages279-289
Number of pages11
ISBN (Print)9780784413609
DOIs
Publication statusPublished - 2014
Event2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014 - Liverpool, United Kingdom
Duration: 13 Jul 201416 Jul 2014

Conference

Conference2nd International Conference on Vulnerability and Risk Analysis and Management, ICVRAM 2014 and the 6th International Symposium on Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis, ISUMA 2014
CountryUnited Kingdom
CityLiverpool
Period13/07/1416/07/14

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