The natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: a fourteen-year population-based cohort study.

K.M. Leyland, D.J. Hart, M.K. Javaid, A. Judge, A. Kiran, A. Soni, L.M. Goulston, C. Cooper, T.D. Spector, N.K. Arden

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

80 Citations (Scopus)


OBJECTIVE: To establish the natural history of radiographic knee osteoarthritis (OA) over 14 years in a community-based cohort. METHODS: We examined women from the Chingford Women's Study, a community-based cohort followed up for more than 14 years. We selected women for whom bilateral radiographs of the knees (with the legs in full extension) were obtained at approximately 5-year intervals. Radiographs were scored for OA in a blinded manner, using Kellgren/Lawrence (K/L) grades. Descriptive statistics and odds ratios (ORs) were used to compare the incidence, worsening, and progression of radiographic knee OA. RESULTS: A complete radiography series was available for 561 of the original 1,003 subjects enrolled in the study. The median age of these subjects at baseline was 53 years (interquartile range 48-58 years). At baseline, 13.7% of the subjects had radiographic knee OA (K/L grade≥2) in at least one knee, and the prevalence increased to 47.8% by year 15. The annual cumulative incidence of radiographic knee OA was 2.3% between baseline and year 15. The annual rates of disease progression and worsening between baseline and year 15 were 2.8% and 3.0%, respectively. Subjects with a K/L grade of 1 at baseline were more likely to experience worsening by year 15 compared with subjects with a baseline grade of 0 (OR 4.5, 95% confidence interval 2.7-7.4). CONCLUSION: This is the longest natural history study of radiographic knee OA to date. The results showed relatively low rates for the incidence and progression of radiographic knee OA; more than half of all subjects had no radiographic evidence of knee OA over a 15-year period of time. Subjects with a baseline K/L grade of 1 were more likely than subjects with other baseline K/L grades to experience worsening of knee OA.
Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)2243-2251
Number of pages9
JournalArthritis and Rheumatism
Issue number7
Publication statusPublished - Jul 2012


  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Cohort Studies
  • Disease Progression
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Knee Joint
  • Middle Aged
  • Osteoarthritis, Knee
  • Prevalence
  • Radiography


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