Projects per year
Abstract
In this paper we seek to understand the nature of flood spatial dependence over the conterminous United States. We extend an existing conditional multivariate statistical model to enable its application to this large and heterogenous region and apply it to a 40year data set of ~2,400 U.S. Geological Survey gauge series records to simulate 1,000 years of U.S. flooding comprising more than 63,000 individual events with realistic spatial dependence. A continentalscale hydrodynamic model at 30 m resolution is then used to calculate the economic loss arising from each of these events. From this we are able to compute the probability that different values of U.S. annual total economic loss due to flooding are exceeded (i.e., a lossexceedance curve). Comparing these data to an observed flood lossexceedance curve for the period 1988–2017 shows a reasonable match for annual losses with probability below 10% (e.g., >1 in 10year return period). This analysis suggests that there is a 1% chance of U.S. annual fluvial flood losses exceeding $78Bn in any given year, and a 0.1% chance of them exceeding $136Bn. Analysis of the set of stochastic events and losses yields new insights into the nature of flooding and flood risk in the United States. In particular, we confirm the strong relationship between flood affected area and event peak magnitude, but show considerable variability in this relationship between adjacent U.S. regions. The analysis provides a significant advance over previous national flood risk analyses as it gives the full lossexceedance curve instead of simply the average annual loss.
Original language  English 

Pages (fromto)  18901911 
Number of pages  22 
Journal  Water Resources Research 
Volume  55 
Issue number  3 
Early online date  13 Feb 2019 
DOIs  
Publication status  Published  Mar 2019 
Keywords
 Flood risk
 Flooding
 Hydrodynamic modelling
 Spatial dependence
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 1 Finished

HyFLOOD: SHEAR II
Neal, J., Wagener, T., Pianosi, F., Hawker, L. P., Smith, A. & Tshimanga, R.
16/10/18 → 30/05/22
Project: Research
Profiles

Professor Paul D Bates
 School of Geographical Sciences  Professor of Hydrology
 Cabot Institute for the Environment
 Hydrology
Person: Academic , Member

Professor Jeff Neal
 School of Geographical Sciences  Professor of Hydrology
 Cabot Institute for the Environment
 Hydrology
Person: Academic , Member