Abstract
Although there have been many attempts at solving the famous two-envelopes problem, I think there is an obvious aspect of the case that has been overlooked: the problem is most naturally resolved with imprecise beliefs/partial preferences. I briefly present a solution to the problem in terms of imprecise probabilities, represented by sets of probabilities consistent with the evidence given; I analyse the decisions in the formalism of sets of desirable gambles. An imprecise credal response to the two-envelopes problem is evidentially well-motivated, validates the common-sense position that the agent should initially regard the two envelopes with indifference, and captures other features of the case that no precise credence function can.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Article number | anae060 |
| Number of pages | 11 |
| Journal | Analysis |
| Early online date | 19 Nov 2025 |
| DOIs | |
| Publication status | E-pub ahead of print - 19 Nov 2025 |
Bibliographical note
Publisher Copyright:© The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Analysis Trust.
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