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The Two-Envelope Paradox Resolved with Imprecise Probabilities

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle (Academic Journal)peer-review

Abstract

Although there have been many attempts at solving the famous two-envelopes problem, I think there is an obvious aspect of the case that has been overlooked: the problem is most naturally resolved with imprecise beliefs/partial preferences. I briefly present a solution to the problem in terms of imprecise probabilities, represented by sets of probabilities consistent with the evidence given; I analyse the decisions in the formalism of sets of desirable gambles. An imprecise credal response to the two-envelopes problem is evidentially well-motivated, validates the common-sense position that the agent should initially regard the two envelopes with indifference, and captures other features of the case that no precise credence function can.
Original languageEnglish
Article numberanae060
Number of pages11
JournalAnalysis
Early online date19 Nov 2025
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 19 Nov 2025

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© The Author(s) 2025. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Analysis Trust.

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