Projects per year
Abstract
Ground deformation often precedes volcanic eruptions, and results from complex interactions between source processes and the thermomechanical behaviour of surrounding rocks. Previous models aiming to constrain source processes were unable to include realistic mechanical and thermal rock properties, and the role of thermomechanical heterogeneity in magma accumulation was unclear. Here we show how spatio-temporal deformation and magma reservoir evolution are fundamentally controlled by three-dimensional thermomechanical heterogeneity. Using the example of continued inflation at Aira caldera, Japan, we demonstrate that magma is accumulating faster than it can be erupted, and the current uplift is approaching the level inferred prior to the violent 1914 Plinian eruption. Magma storage conditions coincide with estimates for the caldera-forming reservoir ~29,000 years ago, and the inferred magma supply rate indicates a ~130-year timeframe to amass enough magma to feed a future 1914-sized eruption. These new inferences are important for eruption forecasting and risk mitigation, and have significant implications for the interpretations of volcanic deformation worldwide.
Original language | English |
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Article number | 32691 |
Number of pages | 10 |
Journal | Scientific Reports |
Volume | 6 |
DOIs | |
Publication status | Published - 13 Sep 2016 |
Keywords
- Geophysics
- Natural hazards
- Volcanology
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Dive into the research topics of 'Thermomechanical controls on magma supply and volcanic deformation: application to Aira caldera, Japan'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.Projects
- 3 Finished
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Volcanic black swan events in Southern Kyushu
Gottsmann, J. & Christie, R. B.
1/03/16 → 31/07/16
Project: Research
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Investigating the relationship between pluton growth and volcanism at an active intrusions in the central Andes
1/10/09 → 1/01/14
Project: Research
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CYCLIC CHANGES IN THE GRAVITY FIELD AT SOUFRIERE HILLS VOLCANO, MONSERRAT
1/05/07 → 1/11/09
Project: Research
Profiles
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Professor Jo Gottsmann
- School of Earth Sciences - Professor of Volcanology
- Cabot Institute for the Environment
- Geophysics
- Volcanology
Person: Academic , Member