Skip to content

Treatment of first-time traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation: the UK TASH-D cohort study

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

  • Jonathan L Rees
  • Anjali Shah
  • Katherine Edwards
  • Maria T Sanchez-Santos
  • Danielle E Robinson
  • Antonella Delmestri
  • Andrew Carr
  • Nigel Arden
  • Sarah E Lamb
  • Amar Rangan
  • Andrew Judge
  • Rafael Pinedo-Villanueva
  • Tim Holt
  • Sally Hopewell
  • Daniel Prieto-Alhambra
  • Gary Collins
Original languageEnglish
Number of pages104
JournalHealth Technology Assessment
Issue number18
DateAccepted/In press - 19 Oct 2018
DatePublished (current) - 1 May 2019


BACKGROUND: Shoulder dislocations are the most common joint dislocations seen in emergency departments. Most traumatic cases are anterior and cause recurrent dislocations. Management options include surgical and conservative treatments. There is a lack of evidence about which method is most effective after the first traumatic anterior shoulder dislocation (TASD).

OBJECTIVES: To produce UK age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD. To assess whether or not surgery within 6 months of a first-time TASD decreases re-dislocation rates compared with no surgery. To identify clinical predictors of recurrent dislocation.

DESIGN: A population-based cohort study of first-time TASD patients in the UK. An initial validation study and subsequent propensity-score-matched analysis to compare re-dislocation rates between surgery and no surgery after a first-time TASD. Prediction modelling was used to identify potential predictors of recurrent dislocation.

SETTING: UK primary and secondary care data.

PARTICIPANTS: Patients with a first-time TASD between 1997 and 2015.

INTERVENTIONS: Stabilisation surgery within 6 months of a first-time TASD (compared with no surgery). Stabilisation surgery within 12 months of a first-time TASD was also carried out as a sensitivity analysis.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Re-dislocation rate up to 2 years after the first TASD.

METHODS: Eligible patients were identified from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) (1997-2015). Accuracy of shoulder dislocation coding was internally validated using the CPRD General Practitioner questionnaire service. UK age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD were externally validated against rates from the USA and Canada. A propensity-score-matched analysis using linked CPRD and Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data compared re-dislocation rates for patients aged 16-35 years, comparing surgery with no surgery. Multivariable Cox regression models for predicting re-dislocation were developed for the surgical and non-surgical cohorts.

RESULTS: Shoulder dislocation was coded correctly for 89% of cases in the CPRD [95% confidence interval (CI) 83% to 95%], with a 'primary' dislocation confirmed for 76% of cases (95% CI 67% to 85%). Far fewer patients than expected received stabilisation surgery within 6 months of a first TASD, leading to an underpowered study. Around 20% of re-dislocation rates were observed for both surgical and non-surgical patients. The sensitivity analysis at 12 months also showed little difference in re-dislocation rates. Missing data on risk factors limited the value of the prediction modelling; however, younger age, epilepsy and sex (male) were identified as statistically significant predictors of re-dislocation.

LIMITATIONS: Far fewer than the expected number of patients had surgery after a first-time TASD, resulting in an underpowered study. This and residual confounding from missing risk factors mean that it is not possible to draw valid conclusions.

CONCLUSIONS: This study provides, for the first time, UK data on the age- and sex-specific incidence rates for TASD. Most TASD occurs in men, but an unexpected increased incidence was observed in women aged > 50 years. Surgery after a first-time TASD is uncommon in the NHS. Re-dislocation rates for patients receiving surgery after their first TASD are higher than previously expected; however, important residual confounding risk factors were not recorded in NHS primary and secondary care databases, thus preventing useful recommendations.

FUTURE WORK: The high incidence of TASD justifies investigation into preventative measures for young men participating in contact sports, as well as investigating the risk factors in women aged > 50 years. A randomised controlled trial would account for key confounders missing from CPRD and HES data. A national TASD registry would allow for a more relevant data capture for this patient group.

STUDY REGISTRATION: Independent Scientific Advisory Committee (ISAC) for the Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (ISAC protocol 15_0260).

FUNDING: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

    Research areas


Download statistics

No data available



  • v34+HTA+Report+Resubmission

    Accepted author manuscript, 3 MB, PDF document

    Request copy

  • Full-text PDF (final published version)

    Rights statement: This is the final published version of the article (version of record). It first appeared online via NIHR at . Please refer to any applicable terms of use of the publisher.

    Final published version, 1 MB, PDF document

    Licence: Other


View research connections

Related faculties, schools or groups