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Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world

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Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world. / Couce, Elena M; Irvine, Pete J; Gregoire, Lauren; Ridgwell, Andy J; Hendy, E.J.

In: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, No. 9, 10.05.2013, p. 1799-1805.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Harvard

Couce, EM, Irvine, PJ, Gregoire, L, Ridgwell, AJ & Hendy, EJ 2013, 'Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world', Geophysical Research Letters, vol. 40, no. 9, pp. 1799-1805. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50340

APA

Couce, E. M., Irvine, P. J., Gregoire, L., Ridgwell, A. J., & Hendy, E. J. (2013). Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(9), 1799-1805. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50340

Vancouver

Couce EM, Irvine PJ, Gregoire L, Ridgwell AJ, Hendy EJ. Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world. Geophysical Research Letters. 2013 May 10;40(9):1799-1805. https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50340

Author

Couce, Elena M ; Irvine, Pete J ; Gregoire, Lauren ; Ridgwell, Andy J ; Hendy, E.J. / Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world. In: Geophysical Research Letters. 2013 ; Vol. 40, No. 9. pp. 1799-1805.

Bibtex

@article{49f005c4efa5498aace4e2b996a7251e,
title = "Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world",
abstract = "Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow-water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various Representative Concentration Pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. ‘Optimal’ mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs over-cool in a fully-geoengineered (i.e. pre-industrial global mean temperature) world. Key Points: • Large reductions in reef habitat suitability under net radiative forcing >3 W/m2 • Rising SSTs are greater threat for tropical coral reefs than ocean acidification • Solar Radiation Management may help maintain coral reef habitat over near-term",
keywords = "geoengineering, coral reef ecosystems, Species Distribution Modeling, Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling, Solar Radiation Management, CLIMATE-CHANGE, OCEAN ACIDIFICATION, CARBON-DIOXIDE, GENERATION, SURFACE, EARTH",
author = "Couce, {Elena M} and Irvine, {Pete J} and Lauren Gregoire and Ridgwell, {Andy J} and E.J. Hendy",
year = "2013",
month = "5",
day = "10",
doi = "10.1002/grl.50340",
language = "English",
volume = "40",
pages = "1799--1805",
journal = "Geophysical Research Letters",
issn = "0094-8276",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "9",

}

RIS - suitable for import to EndNote

TY - JOUR

T1 - Tropical coral reef habitat in a geoengineered, high-CO2 world

AU - Couce, Elena M

AU - Irvine, Pete J

AU - Gregoire, Lauren

AU - Ridgwell, Andy J

AU - Hendy, E.J.

PY - 2013/5/10

Y1 - 2013/5/10

N2 - Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow-water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various Representative Concentration Pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. ‘Optimal’ mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs over-cool in a fully-geoengineered (i.e. pre-industrial global mean temperature) world. Key Points: • Large reductions in reef habitat suitability under net radiative forcing >3 W/m2 • Rising SSTs are greater threat for tropical coral reefs than ocean acidification • Solar Radiation Management may help maintain coral reef habitat over near-term

AB - Continued anthropogenic CO2 emissions are expected to impact tropical coral reefs by further raising sea surface temperatures (SST) and intensifying ocean acidification (OA). Although geoengineering by means of Solar Radiation Management (SRM) may mitigate temperature increases, OA will persist, raising important questions regarding the impact of different stressor combinations. We apply statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models to project changes in shallow-water tropical coral reef habitat as a single niche (without resolving biodiversity or community composition) under various Representative Concentration Pathway and SRM scenarios, until 2070. We predict substantial reductions in habitat suitability centered on the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool under net anthropogenic radiative forcing of ≥3.0 W/m2. The near-term dominant risk to coral reefs is increasing SSTs; below 3 W/m2 reasonably favorable conditions are maintained, even when achieved by SRM with persisting OA. ‘Optimal’ mitigation occurs at 1.5 W/m2 because tropical SSTs over-cool in a fully-geoengineered (i.e. pre-industrial global mean temperature) world. Key Points: • Large reductions in reef habitat suitability under net radiative forcing >3 W/m2 • Rising SSTs are greater threat for tropical coral reefs than ocean acidification • Solar Radiation Management may help maintain coral reef habitat over near-term

KW - geoengineering

KW - coral reef ecosystems

KW - Species Distribution Modeling

KW - Bioclimatic Envelope Modeling

KW - Solar Radiation Management

KW - CLIMATE-CHANGE

KW - OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

KW - CARBON-DIOXIDE

KW - GENERATION

KW - SURFACE

KW - EARTH

U2 - 10.1002/grl.50340

DO - 10.1002/grl.50340

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:84879086383

VL - 40

SP - 1799

EP - 1805

JO - Geophysical Research Letters

JF - Geophysical Research Letters

SN - 0094-8276

IS - 9

ER -