Tsunami simulations of mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai–Tonankai Trough (Japan) based on stochastic rupture scenarios

Katsu Goda, Tomohiro Yasuda, P Martin Mai, Takuma Maruyama, Nobuhito Mori

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Abstract

In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai-Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario ruptures also account for key features of the national tsunami source model for the Nankai-Tonankai earthquake by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Government. The source models capture a wide range of realistic slip distributions and kinematic rupture processes, reflecting the current best understanding of what may happen due to a future mega-earthquake in the Nankai-Tonankai Trough, and therefore are useful for conducting probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. A large suite of scenario rupture models is then used to investigate the variability of tsunami effects in coastal areas, such as off-shore tsunami wave heights and on-shore inundation depths, due to realistic variations in source characteristics. Such investigations are particularly valuable for tsunami hazard mapping and evacuation planning in municipalities along the Nankai-Tonankai coast.
Original languageEnglish
Article number456
Number of pages20
JournalGeological Society Special Publications
Early online date22 Feb 2017
DOIs
Publication statusE-pub ahead of print - 22 Feb 2017

Keywords

  • Nankai-Tonankai Trough
  • Tsunami
  • Stochastic source
  • Kinematic rupture
  • Uncertainty
  • Inundation

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