Type 1 diabetes risk assessment: improvement by follow-up measurements in young islet autoantibody-positive relatives

Aims/hypothesis  Combinations of autoantibody characteristics, including antibody number, titre, subclass and epitope have been shown to stratify type 1 diabetes risk in islet autoantibody-positive relatives. The aim of this study was to determine whether autoantibody characteristics change over time, the nature of such changes, and their implications for the development of diabetes. Methods  Five-hundred and thirteen follow-up samples from 141 islet autoantibody-positive first-degree relatives were tested for islet autoantibody titre, IgG subclass, and GAD and IA-2 antibody epitope. All samples were categorised according to four risk stratification models. Relatives had a median follow-up of 6.8 years and 48 developed diabetes during follow-up. Survival analysis was used to determine the probability of change in risk category and of progression to diabetes. Results  For each stratification model, the majority of relatives (71-81%) remained in the same risk category throughout follow-up. In the remainder, changes occurred both from lower to higher and from higher to lower risk categories. For all four models, relatives aged 15 years (0.001 <p <0.03). Relatives whose autoantibody status changed from low- to high-risk categories had a higher risk of diabetes than relatives who remained in low-risk categories, and inclusion of autoantibody status during follow-up improved diabetes risk stratification in Cox proportional hazards models (p